Geopolitics Jolt Markets as Bitcoin Dips Below $100,000 but Rebounds Swiftly

Bitcoin dropped to $98,200 on Sunday, June 22, its lowest level since crossing $100,000 on May 8. This came amid heightened geopolitical tension sparked by Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments.

According to QCP’s latest market insights, the move triggered widespread risk-off behavior, leading to over $1 billion in crypto liquidations, especially among leveraged long positions.

BTC quickly reclaimed the $100,000 threshold on Monday morning, suggesting the weekend’s sharp move was largely macro-driven and compounded by thin weekend liquidity. Investors appear to be positioning defensively while awaiting cues from equity markets and upcoming U.S. economic data.

Despite Iran’s escalating rhetoric, markets are discounting the chance of sustained conflict. Diplomatic efforts, particularly U.S. pressure on China to rein in Tehran, are seen as stabilizing factors. Volatility remains elevated, with put skew priced in through Sept., but the bounce in spot BTC and softening front-end implied volatility suggest that broader contagion fears are subdued.

Traditional assets tell a similar story. Oil and gold briefly spiked but have since reverted to pre-weekend levels, and U.S. equity futures are holding steady.

With bitcoin hovering near $100,000 and macro uncertainty lingering, this week’s data-heavy calendar, including speeches from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and U.S. inflation indicators, could determine whether crypto reclaims momentum or retreats into risk-off mode.