Today, the market experienced a dual explosion of long and short positions, with the core driving factor likely being the rapid changes in oil price expectations, especially the market's reassessment of the possibility of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. According to Polymarket data, this probability has now dropped to about 30%, reflecting the market's belief that Iran lacks the actual capability to enforce a blockade, thereby alleviating concerns over rising oil prices and causing oil prices to fall to around $68. In the short term, while it remains difficult to achieve a ceasefire in the war, as long as there are no actual signs of a blockade, the potential for a significant rise in oil prices is limited.

In terms of the cryptocurrency market, although Bitcoin has experienced significant volatility, on-chain data does not show clear signs of panic. Trading activity is mainly concentrated among short-term bottom fishers, while long-term investors remain cautious. On the support side, the $93,000–$98,000 range remains solid, while above $105,000, there is a hidden risk of a pullback due to short-term buying pressure. Overall, oil prices and war expectations remain key variables determining the volatility of risk assets.

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