Israel-Iran Ceasefire Agreement: It Seems to Have Stopped, but Not Completely; Global Stock Markets Rebound, and BTC May Be Affected by Changes in Interest Rate Cut Expectations

Macro Interpretation: U.S. President Trump confirmed that Israel and Iran have reached a ceasefire, although both sides accuse each other of violations, but substantial conflicts have not escalated. This situation far exceeds market expectations, driving a rapid recovery in global risk appetite. The Tel Aviv Index in Israel rose by 1.4%, while stock indices in Saudi Arabia and Dubai increased by over 2%, and European stocks generally rose. For the cryptocurrency market, the decline in geopolitical risk coincides with technical support—Bitcoin received strong buying interest at the $99,000 level, with on-chain data showing long-term holders taking the opportunity to increase their positions, while short-term speculative positions gradually exited.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's congressional hearing this week is considered "the most severe test in a decade." Trump publicly pressured on social media, accusing Powell of refusing to cut interest rates, causing the U.S. to miss out on $800 billion in gains, and hinted that Europe has cut rates 10 times. Ironically, a key split has also emerged within the Federal Reserve: Trump-appointed governors Bowman and Waller publicly support a rate cut in July, and they are seen as potential successors to Powell after his term ends in 2026. CME data shows that the market's pricing of the probability of a rate cut in July has risen to 20.7%, while the latest remarks from Fed official Goolsbee, "if trade policy impacts disappear, we should continue to cut rates," further strengthen dovish expectations.

While the market focuses on the interest rate cut game, a deeper transformation is occurring. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) announced it is studying the inclusion of cryptocurrency holdings in mortgage qualification reviews, overseeing trillion-dollar housing finance giants like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Symbolically, FHFA Director Thompson personally holds between $500,000 and $1 million in Bitcoin and Solana. If this initiative is implemented, it would mean that cryptocurrencies will deeply engage with the U.S. housing credit system for the first time, opening up possibilities for DeFi collateral applications.

Meanwhile, stablecoin issuer Circle's valuation has surpassed $60 billion, nearly equivalent to its circulating $61.2 billion USDC. This marks a significant acceleration of capital flowing into the cryptocurrency infrastructure layer—compared to the $78.3 billion market cap of trading platform Coinbase, the market is giving a valuation premium to pure stablecoin issuers for the first time. Coupled with the advancement of the U.S. GENIUS stablecoin bill and the implementation of the EU MiCA framework, the compliance process is reshaping industry valuation logic.

The short-term momentum and long-term narrative of BTC currently reflect driving logic in the cryptocurrency market, including liquidity expectations, the rising probability of Fed rate cuts directly lowering the dollar index, and the declining discount rate in risk asset valuation models, which supports deflationary assets like BTC; as well as the integration of traditional markets, from mortgage qualification assessments to financial institutions' balance sheet allocations, the increasing penetration of crypto assets brings in incremental funds; and capital is gathering towards stablecoins, custody, and settlement layers, solidifying the market foundation while reducing systemic risk.

Technically, Bitcoin has effectively broken through the key resistance at $105,000. If it holds this position, the next target may point to the $110,000-$115,000 pressure zone. However, caution is needed regarding short-term geopolitical fluctuations and the risk of divergence in Fed expectations—if Powell sends hawkish signals during the congressional hearing, it may trigger profit-taking.

As Bitcoin steps out of the safe-haven asset label, as stablecoin valuations rival top exchanges, and as mortgage institutions begin to assess your crypto holdings—the boundaries between the traditional financial system and the crypto ecosystem are dissolving. The Fed's interest rate cuts are no longer just a choice of interest rate tools but have become a fulcrum for the game between the crypto market and traditional capital. On this fulcrum, a new crypto era driven by infrastructure and supported by compliance is gradually taking shape.

BTC K-Line Analysis:

According to CoinAnk AI smart analysis, the market analysis report is as follows:

Main support level: 100,941.07 USDT

Main resistance level: 107,443.47 USDT

Current trend: Slightly bullish

Technical indicators summary:

Moving Average System: Bullish arrangement

MA5 (104,611.17) > MA10 (102,955.77) > MA20 (102,485.18), short-term moving averages show a bullish arrangement, indicating a strong short-term trend. However, MA120 (105,232.55) is slightly above the current price, so caution is needed regarding long-term moving average resistance.

MACD: Golden cross in operation

DIF (130.37) crosses above DEA (432.13), and the histogram (562.50) continues to expand, indicating enhanced bullish momentum.

BOLL: Price approaching the upper band

The current price (105,167.70) is close to the upper band (106,053.78), with a %B value of 0.84%, indicating the price is in a strong range, but caution is needed regarding upper band pressure.

RSI: Neutral to strong

RSI6 (71.45) is close to the overbought zone, while RSI12 (60.97) and RSI14 (59.01) are neutral to strong, indicating a potential need for short-term pullback, but not severely overbought.

KDJ: Golden cross in operation

K (81.91) > D (75.99) > J (93.75), indicating short-term overbought, but the trend remains bullish.

Indicator data:

Funding rate: 0.00436100%

The rate is neutral, with no extreme bullish or bearish sentiment (BTC rate absolute value less than 0.02%), indicating stable market sentiment.

Volume changes:

Recent 4H trading volume has increased, accompanied by rising prices, indicating good volume-price coordination. However, caution is needed regarding some high-level K-lines with reduced volume, signaling potential short-term profit-taking.

Capital flow data:

24H contract net inflow (900,401,593.66 USDT) is significant, but 4H net outflow (266,237,913.10 USDT) shows short-term capital divergence. The 24H net outflow in the spot market (119,521,511.46 USDT) indicates some capital is exiting, requiring comprehensive judgment based on contract capital flow.

Analysis results:

Direction: Cautiously bullish

The short-term trend is slightly bullish, but approaching the resistance level (107,443.47) and with RSI short-term overbought, caution is needed regarding pullback risk.

For conservative traders: Wait for a pullback to MA5 support to build positions in batches.

Stop-loss setting: 3%-5%, stop-loss if it falls below MA10.

Target price: 107,443.47 (first resistance level) to 109,997.93 (second resistance level), corresponding to a return of 2.2%-4.6%. If it breaks through 107,443.47, it can be held until 109,997.93.

Note: This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice!

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