Desire is too strong, emotions are too many, and with a bit more bad luck, a single mistake can lead to total loss.

Hello everyone, I am trader Gege. Continuing from the last time, after a strong rise in Bitcoin, there was no pullback or adjustment, but rather a slow rise testing the 108,000 level. The previous drop of ten thousand dollars was recovered in three days amidst doubts. Apart from the ceasefire between Israel and Palestine, the comments from old Powell on Capitol Hill regarding interest rate cuts have softened considerably compared to before. The CME expects the probability of a rate cut in September to reach 87%. The easing rates for Q3-Q4 and next year are very favorable for the crypto space. The overall long-term outlook remains optimistic, although there will definitely be some minor episodes in the short term. After all, the situation in the Middle East has only temporarily eased and has not completely ended. Trump has stated that these two could resume fighting at any time, so short-term risk control cannot be neglected.

Back to the main topic, let's talk about the technical aspects. Although Bitcoin has been rising with consecutive daily candles, the key resistance above cannot be ignored. Gege believes that before hitting a new high, a pullback adjustment is a healthy trend. Otherwise, if there is a continued rise, it would mean a complete liquidation of shorts, and a violent pullback after reaching a new high would be even bloodier. Personally, I still lean towards a pullback; this way, the subsequent rise will be more sustainable. Therefore, near the resistance zone, do not chase the rise too eagerly, be careful of being taken away. As I often say, risk comes first, profit comes later.

After a large rise on the 4H level, there was no pullback, and it has been moving up with small gains. Although such a candlestick pattern has a high probability of leading to a large rise later, the current candlestick closing pattern is also very important. If it maintains the current state or closes with a bearish candle, it indicates that bullish momentum is weakening, and the probability of adjustment increases. Additionally, the auxiliary indicators have entered the overbought zone. The rise in Bitcoin has not driven Ethereum; the short position at 2480 mentioned above still has good results, and their movements are becoming quite familiar. Ethereum has not broken through the EMA200 and the middle track on the daily level, and has only temporarily stood above the MA60 and MA7. Therefore, the short-term focus should be on its support situation; once it breaks, it is likely to test the lower track again. The 4H level may form a rounded top, so pay attention to this candlestick pattern, and continue to refer to the resistance mentioned above for short-term trading.

Short-term Bitcoin: short at 108,000-109,000, long at 103,500-102,800, looking at a $2,000 range.

Short-term Ethereum: short at 2460-2480, long at 2300-2270, looking at a $100-120 range.

The suggestions are for reference only. Ensure proper risk control when entering the market, and manage your profit and stop-loss space accordingly. Specific strategies should be consulted in real-time.

Alright, friends, we will see you next time. I wish everyone continued success and smooth sailing in the crypto space! More real-time advice will be sent internally. Today's brief update ends here. For more real-time advice on Bitcoin and Ethereum, find Gege.

Written by / I am trader Gege, a friend willing to accompany you in making a comeback.

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