Avenir Group and Glassnode's data conclude that most of the capital inflows into spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs are unhedged pure long positions, indicating that institutional investors have genuine confidence rather than relying on short-term arbitrage strategies.
BTC continues to behave like a traditional macro asset, showing a strong positive correlation with stocks, gold, and liquidity cycles, while exhibiting an inverse correlation with the US dollar and high-yield credit spreads.
A new study shows that the significant capital inflows into spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs are not driven by arbitrage or hedging futures strategies, but rather stem from long-term, unhedged demand from traditional markets, representing just one aspect of a deeper ongoing transformation.
The collaborative report from Glassnode and Avenir Group mentions that while the launch of the US spot Bitcoin ETF marks a milestone for the cryptocurrency market, questions remain: Is the influx of capital genuine, or merely a result of basis trading exploiting the price differences between Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) futures and the spot market?
It has been hypothesized that asset managers, traders, and hedge funds have perfectly hedged all their short positions in CME Bitcoin futures by holding ETFs. A new framework has been developed to address this issue.
Avenir Group researcher Helena Lam, along with Glassnode analysts UkuriaOC and CryptoVizArt, state that although their rigorous model filters out arbitrage activities, the data shows a strong correlation between unhedged demand and capital inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. This indicates that most of the capital entering the ETF reflects genuine directional exposure, suggesting that institutional investors are not merely testing the market but are investing with confidence.
Analysts indicate that the steady rise in spot ETF holdings marks a structural change in the characteristics of the Bitcoin market. Bitcoin is increasingly being viewed as an institutional asset. This shift brings more stable capital, improved liquidity, and signs of market maturation.
In addition to the inflows into spot ETFs, the research also points out that Bitcoin is increasingly behaving like a macro asset, with its performance closely tied to broader financial conditions. Data shows that Bitcoin's positive correlation with traditional risk assets such as the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and gold is strengthening, while it exhibits an inverse correlation with credit pressure indicators like the US Dollar Index and high-yield spreads.
Bitcoin's response to the Global Liquidity Index (GLI) further highlights this shift: Bitcoin rises during liquidity expansions and falls when financial conditions tighten.
Supporting this evolving trend, André Dragosch, research director at Bitwise Europe, emphasized the connection between global money supply and Bitcoin prices.
Although he cautioned against using global liquidity indicators for short-term predictions, the analyst noted, "Statistical evidence suggests a long-term relationship," estimating that for every $1 trillion increase in global money supply, Bitcoin prices could rise by $13,861.
Related: Bitcoin (BTC) Enters "Institutional Lockup Era": Bull Market Engine or Market Risk?
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading activity involves risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
Original article: “Unhedged Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows Show BTC is Now a Macro Asset”
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