Master Discusses Hot Topics:

Let's first talk about last night's surge, which essentially just corrected the technical drop caused by last week's issues in the Middle East. The key point is that the Nasdaq was not scared at all and immediately hit a new historical high.

You can analyze it closely; if Bitcoin is to move in tandem with the Nasdaq, then the current position should not be 108K, but rather start from 110.7K. The premise is that the U.S. stock market needs to behave and not create any more surprises.

Now, regarding the Federal Reserve, I mentioned back in March that for the market to evolve from a rebound into a reversal, we need to look for two key actions: the cancellation of SLR (Supplementary Leverage Ratio, which is essentially used to prevent banks from being too aggressive, too willing to lend, and too risky) and the cessation of balance sheet reduction.

On the balance sheet reduction front, they are still playing dead, but SLR has now started to loosen up. The Federal Reserve has finally begun to consider giving banks a break and is preparing to lower the capital requirements for banks holding U.S. Treasury bonds.

In plain language, they also know that market liquidity is running low, and to avoid collapsing the Treasury market, they need to give banks the green light to take over. This process is already in the public consultation phase, and we should hear something within 60 days; gradually easing the good news is the rhythm.

Returning to the market, last night's move cleared out the short liquidity below 108K, directly pulling down the bears. The current situation is not about whether you are bullish or bearish, but rather that the main players are racing.

If the bulls can first chew through the low liquidity range from 108K to 110K, then the giant liquidation zone at 110K will not be far off. If the bears can pile up the bullish liquidity around 103K first, then the market will need to pull back to wash out the bulls.

You should know that the longer the oscillation lasts, the more favorable it is for the bulls. In this position, creating a false breakout and then a false breakdown is all part of the game. Bears entering the market now are actively putting themselves under the wheels. Bulls getting in are shedding the burdens from the back seat, charging towards 110K.

If you want to talk about stimulation, it depends on whether the Middle East can stir up any more trouble. Or whether the macro data released by the Americans tonight can scare the market; otherwise, in this situation, the dominance of the bulls has become a trend.

Last night, a friend also mentioned that this wave is like early January 2024, and I said it's true; the movements are remarkably similar. First, a false breakdown below 99K, then a rise all the way up, exploding the shorts.

You might say it could also turn bearish like earlier this year? That’s possible, but right now we are in a large range with no clear signs. If you insist on guessing tops and bottoms, you will likely be fooled by false breakouts and false breakdowns…

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Levels Reference:

Second Resistance Level: 108900

First Resistance Level: 108200

Support Levels Reference:

Second Support Level: 107200

First Support Level: 106500

From the current technical structure, the moving average system has entered a bullish arrangement, and the short-term price is still running above the upward trend line, providing a certain basis for a rebound.

However, the RSI has shown signs of a short-term top divergence, indicating that the price may face some adjustments. Therefore, during the day, we should pay attention to whether the price can hold the key support range after a pullback; this is crucial for judging whether the trend will continue.

Currently, 108K is a key short-term resistance. If it can break through, it is expected to trigger bullish sentiment, leading to a quick short-term surge. If the first resistance level is broken, we need to pay attention to the previous high at 108.9K. If there is a short-term pullback in this range, it is a reasonable area for taking profits in batches.

If the price adjusts, the range of 107K to 107.2K is a suitable pullback area. Combined with the divergence signal from the RSI indicator, this position is also a key support.

If it breaks below the current short-term upward trend line, the 106.5K range will become the next support and will intensify the short-term adjustment. If the price continues to maintain the short-term upward trend, the key is that 107.2K cannot be effectively broken.

At the same time, we can pay attention to the effectiveness of the 20-day moving average and the short-term upward trend line on the hourly level. If it breaks down, it will also be a new low-buying opportunity; focus on whether the decline slows down or if a stop-loss signal appears before considering entry.

6.26 Master’s Band Trading Plan:

Long Entry Reference: Buy in batches in the range of 105700-106500. Target: 108200-108900

Short Entry Reference: Not currently applicable

If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than making hasty conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; today they screenshot long positions, tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they "catch the top and bottom every time," but in reality, it’s all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have a trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don’t be blinded by flashy data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!

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