Key Points Overview:
Bitcoin has risen 10% from a local low of $98,400 to $108,200, successfully reclaiming a key support level.
The bull flag pattern on the Bitcoin daily chart suggests a potential increase of 54%, with a target price of $165,000.
Exchange fund flow has hit a 10-year low, indicating that investors are firmly maintaining a long-term holding strategy.
Bitcoin's price climbed to a weekly high of $108,200 on June 25, marking a 10% increase from the local low of $98,400 three days prior. As the price continues to consolidate below the historical high of $112,000, Bitcoin has now reestablished a key support level.
Will Bitcoin's price surge over 50% in the coming days?
Bitcoin accumulated a 52% increase from April 8 to May 22, reaching a historical high of $112,000. Since then, Bitcoin's price has fluctuated between the historical high and $100,000. The recent strong rebound from a six-week low below $100,000 indicates that bullish investors are actively defending this important price level.
Renowned cryptocurrency analyst Jelle noted in a post on the X platform on Wednesday, "Bitcoin has reclaimed the key support area," adding that Bitcoin has now returned to the flag consolidation range on the daily chart.
The bull flag pattern is a continuation pattern that typically appears after a significant rise, followed by a consolidation period at the upper price range. "Once it breaks above $110,000, the price will soar significantly."
A breakout from the flag could lead Bitcoin into the next phase of upward movement, with an expected target price of $165,200, representing a 54% increase from the current price level.
However, investors should note that the success rate of the bull flag pattern is only about 54%, making it one of the relatively less reliable patterns in technical analysis.
Bitcoin analyst Merlijn The Trader shared a similar bullish outlook, predicting that Bitcoin's price will rise to $140,000 based on an inverse head and shoulders pattern. "Once it breaks above $112,000, there will be no factors to stop Bitcoin from soaring above $140,000."
Other market predictions are even more optimistic, with some analysts citing the surge in U.S. debt and President Trump's tax cuts as reasons to set Bitcoin's top target range between $200,000 and $250,000.
Despite Bitcoin's trading price being significantly close to its historical peak, with over 96% of the supply in profit, demand for Bitcoin among exchange users is showing a declining trend.
Latest data from on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant indicates that the average daily fund flow on exchanges has dropped to a historic low in the past 10 years.
Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler, Jr. pointed out in his analysis, "The average daily fund flow (inflows + outflows) on centralized exchanges has fallen to 40,000 Bitcoins per day, the lowest record in the past decade." He further added, "A large amount of Bitcoin has left these platforms, indicating that the market is consolidating and may face liquidity shortages."
The decrease in fund inflows may suggest that investors are transferring their held Bitcoins to self-custody wallets, reflecting increased market confidence in Bitcoin as a long-term store of value.
According to previous reports from Cointelegraph, the total balance of Bitcoin on exchanges has fallen to its lowest level in seven years. Glassnode data shows that as of June 25, the Bitcoin balance on exchanges was only 2.92 million Bitcoins, a level last seen in June 2019.
The reduction in exchange supply means a decrease in the number of Bitcoins available for trading, which, from a long-term market trend perspective, could lead to liquidity shortages and drive prices up.
Related: Japan Proposes Reclassifying Cryptocurrencies to Pave the Way for ETFs and Lower Taxes
This article does not contain any investment advice or recommendations. Any investment and trading activities involve risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
Original article: “Bitcoin (BTC) Bull Flag Pattern Established, Aiming for $165,000 Target as Exchange Flows Hit 10-Year Lows”
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