When the sunlight bathes the earth and the gentle breeze brushes our faces, we feel the beauty of life; when we gather with family and friends to share joy and sorrow, we experience the warmth of familial and friendly bonds; when we strive hard to achieve our goals, we reap the joy of success; regardless of the time, failure and success coexist, and what matters most is our mindset!
In the past two days, the market trend has shown a fluctuating upward movement. I mainly want to discuss operational issues. Why short? There are several reasons. According to yesterday's analysis, we actually hoped for a pullback when the market first rose to around 107200. After all, the market has been rising from a low point without much pullback. On the technical indicators, the market is also starting to operate at a high level, indicating a need for indicator repair. After confirming support through a pullback, the upward trend would be healthier. Last night, the market reached above 108000 and then quickly pulled back. At that moment, it seemed that after a rapid rise, a pullback might occur. When I woke up this morning, it was still around 107600, and we had entered a short position near 107200, which is currently at a slight loss.
Returning to the market, as it fluctuated upward to above 108000, the short liquidity that had gathered at this position was cleared. Currently, the market is beginning to fluctuate in a small range, which requires consideration of where the liquidity will accumulate next. For the bulls, it is naturally hoped that the bears will continue to resist and add positions above. Conversely, if the bullish liquidity can accumulate more quickly below, a downward liquidation becomes more feasible.
On the technical side, with the daily candlestick continuously closing positively, the current bullish trend structure remains intact. The MA7 moving average is running upward, indicating a potential golden cross formation. On the technical indicators, as long as there is no significant pullback today, the MACD will enter a bullish cycle, with the fast and slow lines converging near the zero axis. However, the RSI shows signs of a pullback at a high level, indicating some divergence. The daily cycle still needs time for observation, providing little value for short-term trading.
On the four-hour cycle, the trend is indeed very strong, which makes it quite uncomfortable for those of us who are short. The K-line pattern is slowly rising, but as mentioned yesterday, the technical indicators on the four-hour cycle are indeed at a high level. A challenging point for the bears here is that if the market continues to fluctuate at this position and completes indicator repair in this manner, it will clearly benefit the bulls' performance going forward. Currently, it seems the bears are hoping for negative news from the evening data or other sources, as the market remains very sensitive to news recently. Any news that comes out could stimulate the market to create a short-term trend. The current support for the four-hour level needs to look at the 105000-106000 area for a pullback. If there is a pullback to this position, it would be a suitable choice for us to go long.
In terms of operations, we hold a short position at 107200. One thing worth considering is the current market sentiment. Recently, there have been continuous expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which has led to a higher bullish sentiment. Combined with the recent slow upward trend, countless historical trends have verified whether the "slow rise and rapid fall" pattern applies to the current market. Therefore, we are holding a light short position and plan to add to our position near 108600, with 109200 as our stop loss, waiting for the anticipated repair market to appear.
To be honest, Ethereum yesterday was in a state of wanting to drop but not dropping. Most of the time, it was dragged up by Bitcoin. When Bitcoin had a closing action yesterday, Ethereum briefly dropped to our expected entry point of 2380 for a long position, and then rebounded to 2520, allowing us to enter a short position near 2500, which is currently around the cost price. I still believe that Ethereum will follow a "doomsday chariot" style trend in the future. There is also a significant amount of buying funds coming from ETFs, but when they will arrive is still uncertain, so we will wait and see.
【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article has been reviewed and published, and the market changes in real-time. The information may be delayed, and the strategies may not be timely. Specific operations should follow real-time strategies. Feel free to contact us for market discussions.】
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