All eyes are on Ethereum as it approaches a crucial turning point and interacts with the 200 EMA, the long-term trend-defining resistance level that is presently trading close to $2,500. For ETH, this appears to be a do-or-die situation. Although the recovery appears weak, ETH was able to recover somewhat after plunging precipitously below the 50-day and 100-day EMAs.
A failure to break and hold above the 200 EMA would be a blatant bearish indication. It is currently trying to retest the 200 EMA from below. To make matters more uncertain, the volume of the recent upswing has also been disappointing. Additionally, the chart displays an unsuccessful ascending triangle pattern from earlier in June which usually denotes waning of bullish momentum.
ETH/USDT Chart by TradingView
The momentum leans bearish because the RSI is in the neutral zone, and there are no indications of a robust buying pressure recovery. The most likely scenario is a decline toward the psychological $2,000 level, which also corresponds with previous consolidation zones if ETH is rejected at the 200 EMA. The gains from the April-May rally would be largely erased by a move that low confirming that bulls are losing ground.
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This could be Ethereum's final opportunity to restore market structure before plunging even deeper into a bearish phase, so it is not just another slight decline. A successful breakout above the 200 EMA, on the other hand, accompanied by strong follow-through volume might rekindle optimism and drive ETH back into the $2,600-$2,800 range.
XRP makes move
Finally achieving a much-needed technical breakout, XRP has decisively pushed above its 26-day EMA. This move could signal a major change in momentum for the struggling asset. This clean surge is a clear indication that bulls are starting to gain ground after weeks of erratic consolidation and unsuccessful breakout attempts.
In addition to closing in on the 200 EMA, which is slightly ahead as the next significant resistance, the price is currently trading above all of the major moving averages, including the 26 EMA, 50 EMA and 100 EMA. XRP's current hold above the 26 EMA is not merely a bullish technical indication; it is also a psychological triumph following a protracted period of underperformance and weakness relative to the overall market.
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In the past, XRP was in a tightening range and formed a mild triangle pattern that was descending, threatening a breakdown toward the $2.00 level. That structure could potentially reverse, though, given the recent spike in volume and price expansion, which points to strong buy-side conviction.
A sweet spot for trend continuation is indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) crossing the 50 level, which also indicates growing momentum without being overbought. Investors should not put their money on XRP at this time. Retests of the $2.28-$2.32 range are now possible due to the short-term structure being altered by the break above the 26 EMA.
Bitcoin's lucky day
The descending trendline, which has served as resistance for the past two months, is being tested by Bitcoin for the third time, and it is quickly approaching a make-or-break moment. Bitcoin may find itself accelerating toward all-time highs if it can close convincingly above it on this third try, which could be the lucky one.
Both the 26 EMA and the 50 EMA have been cleanly reclaimed, and the price action has shown increasing strength with a strong bounce off the 100 EMA. The absence of significant follow-through volume raises concerns even though the bullish structure is obviously intact.
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BTC has plenty of room to run if it receives the necessary catalyst, as momentum indicators like the RSI are back in bullish territory but are still far from being overbought. And volume is the catalyst. If the breakout is not accompanied by strong buying pressure, this third attempt could easily fail again, trapping bulls and causing a rapid retracement back below $105,000.
However, a break above the descending resistance line cannot be confirmed by strong volume, so it is too soon to declare a breakout. Bitcoin might be off to the races if $108,000 breaks.
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