Key Points:
The weakening MVRV momentum of Bitcoin may signal the beginning of the late stage of the bull market cycle.
Spot and on-chain transfer volumes must recover to drive BTC prices above.
BTC bulls must convert the $108,000 to $110,000 range into new support.
Bitcoin has risen 50% from the April low of below $74,000 to $112,000, but it seems to be cooling down. However, traders believe BTC still has the potential to reach higher targets in 2025.
Several analysts explained what needs to happen in the coming days or weeks to increase Bitcoin's potential for price discovery.
The easing of the Israel-Iran war has led to a strong rebound in Bitcoin, reclaiming the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) currently around $106,000. Meanwhile, according to CryptoQuant data, the market value realized value (MVRV) ratio shows that momentum seems to be stagnating.
CryptoQuant analyst Yonsei_dent stated that the current decline in MVRV "does not mean a downtrend is imminent." Instead, it may indicate that we are entering the late stage of the bull market cycle.
The current MVRV slope is 2.22, significantly below the overvalued zone (historically above 3.7), indicating that there is still more room for growth.
A rebound in MVRV momentum would indicate that investors are holding for longer, reducing selling pressure. Combined with strong ETF inflows, this could trigger Bitcoin to break above the current peak of $112,000, potentially reaching levels above the $165,000 predicted by analysts.
The market seems to be in a cooling phase, as both Bitcoin's on-chain transfer volume and spot trading volume are declining.
The seven-day moving average of on-chain transfer volume has dropped about 32% from a peak of $7.6 billion at the end of May to $5.2 billion over the weekend.
Additionally, the current spot trading volume is about $7.7 billion, significantly below the cyclical peaks of this bull market. This discrepancy further highlights the lack of speculative intensity.
In its latest On-Chain Weekly report, Glassnode stated, "Unlike the historical peaks in Q2 and Q4 of 2024, the recent push to $111,000 was not accompanied by a surge in spot trading volume," adding that this "reflects a decrease in investor participation."
An increase in spot trading volume reflects enhanced trading activity on exchanges, which would indicate increased investor demand and market confidence, as past rebounds often saw surges in spot trading volume preceding price breakthroughs.
"BTC's true breakout requires more than just speculation," said Alva, a crypto market insights provider, adding, "High trading volume pushing above $107,500 is the first technical trigger to ignite the fuse."
Glassnode concluded that while Bitcoin's overall "bull market trend remains intact, a recovery in demand, activity indicators, and confidence" will increase the likelihood of a recent breakthrough to new highs.
According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, BTC prices have been fluctuating between $110,000 and $100,000, finding support at this level.
The bullish scenario for Bitcoin depends on its price converting the resistance between $108,000 and $110,000 into support.
"Breaking the $108,000-$110,000 level will require significant effort," said well-known Bitcoin analyst AlphaBTC in a post on X on Thursday.
The analyst asserted that Bitcoin's next reasonable move is a pullback to the $105,000 to $104,000 range to gain momentum for a higher push. "A breakout and a four-hour close above $109,000 would signal new all-time highs are imminent."
Analyst Rekt Capital believes Bitcoin bulls need to break above the "last major weekly resistance" at $108,000 to reach new all-time highs.
Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, stated that $109,000 is "the area we need to break through to gain upward momentum," adding, "The breakout is about to begin."
As Cointelegraph reported, due to a high liquidity cluster reaching $111,000, the $108,000 to $110,000 range is becoming a target for traders.
Related: Bitcoin (BTC) price enters a "normal and healthy" support testing phase, with the $108,000 level suppressing bullish momentum.
Original: “Bitcoin Analysts Say This Must Happen for BTC Price Breakout to New All-Time Highs”
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