Opinion: Michael Tabone, Senior Economist at Cointelegraph
On Saturday, June 21, 2025, the United States attacked Iran's nuclear facilities, causing a brief drop in the price of Bitcoin (BTC). Before the U.S. military action, Bitcoin rebounded to just below 1.27% of its price before the Sunday close.
In the ten days of June, missiles flew, markets were turbulent, but Bitcoin remained stable—though not immune to war, it was more stable than fear suggested.
Humans are naturally inclined to look for patterns, but correlation does not necessarily imply causation. Looking at the headlines, it’s easy to assume that events happen because of one news story or the next. Israel attacks Iran. Iran retaliates. The U.S. drops 30,000 pounds of bunker busters. Bitcoin drops to $98,286, and the headlines scream correlation.
However, upon closer inspection, the pullback was orderly. No panic. No crash. When the dust settled, Bitcoin still closed above six figures within a week, at $100,760. The most severe military escalation in the region in years only caused a 1.27% fluctuation in assets within 24 hours. This is not a crisis. This is the market treating news like weather.
Whether traders, holders, or cryptocurrency newcomers, interpreting the impact of global headlines on Bitcoin's price movements can help distinguish signals from noise and clarify market trends in the short and long term.
Sentiment is crucial for risk assets like Bitcoin, and BTC's price movements have been influenced by the recent Middle East conflict. Notable gold supporter and anti-Bitcoin figure Peter Schiff asked on X, "Who bought below $100,000 besides Michael Saylor?" While BTC's price nearly dipped to $98,000, the market's reaction was enough to support a return to that psychological six-figure level by the end of the day.
BTC and its dollar trading price continue to fluctuate, and within this range, we can gain the most insights. Looking at the highs and lows of BTC's price movements from June 12 to Sunday, we can see that Bitcoin's price closed above the day's low range, showing signs of support at current levels, even amidst a multi-day downtrend.
Considering the 200-day moving average for BTC is around $95,567, the downtrend is reasonable. The 200-day moving average is a key long-term trend indicator that typically provides market support and resistance levels for assets during significant short-term price declines.
Bitcoin does react to news of political conflict. However, it often quickly finds stability, and over a longer time frame, other headlines may have a greater impact on BTC's price fluctuations.
Going back to early 2025, looking for headlines that drive the mid-term crypto market, we can find that macro news from the U.S. seems more relevant than the recent Iran-Israel conflict. The largest single price increase for BTC occurred on January 20, 2025, when U.S. President Donald Trump was inaugurated, followed by a price drop without any official news regarding the crypto industry.
On February 12, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.0%, and the core CPI rose to 3.3%, reinforcing the Federal Reserve's pause on interest rates. On March 19, the Fed lowered its GDP forecast to 1.7%, raised its unemployment rate forecast to 4.4%, and increased inflation expectations. On April 4, Fed Chair Powell warned that new tariffs could push up inflation and slow growth. On April 10, the CPI fell to 2.3%, fueling hopes for rate cuts. On May 13, the CPI remained at 2.3%, but core inflation held at 2.8%. On May 30, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) fell to 2.1%, and core PCE fell to 2.5%. During the Iran-Israel conflict, on June 11, the CPI was 2.4%, and on June 12, the Producer Price Index (PPI) was 0.2%.
On Tuesday and Wednesday (June 24 and 25), the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept interest rates unchanged but lowered the GDP forecast to 1.4% and raised the inflation forecast to 3%. This series of macro data drove Bitcoin's volatility over six months more than any missile launch.
Even the peak on June 16, reaching $108,915, coincided with BlackRock's reported $412 million ETF inflow, which was capital rotation rather than a conflict premium.
Historically, Bitcoin has performed positively during geopolitical turmoil. In significant events such as the U.S.-Iran tensions in 2020, Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and now the 2025 Iran-Israel conflict, Bitcoin has shown price increases or significant stability. While it is not a traditional safe-haven asset, it often behaves like an uncorrelated hedge in times of systemic uncertainty.
BlackRock's 2024 report reinforced this, showing that Bitcoin outperformed the S&P 500 and gold during the last few geopolitical shocks. Their charts highlighted Bitcoin's unique behavior during crises: while stocks fell and gold fluctuated, Bitcoin often trended upward. This pattern was not broken in June 2025. It did not soar, but it also did not break the trend.
This is important in a world eager for assets that do not follow the crowd.
As Bitcoin fluctuated during the recent Iran-Israel conflict, it was not reacting to ideology. It was responding to clearing and liquidity. This is not the same thing. Traders sell in uncertainty.
Others buy the dips. ETF demand continues. The structure remains stable.
The recent Iran-Israel conflict headlines tested Bitcoin's resilience. It was a real-world stress test that did not lead to a technical collapse or institutional flight. This is not bullish in a speculative sense; it is bullish in a structural sense.
When the world briefly tilts toward disaster, this asset does not retreat, but this tilt is far from over. Black swan events can affect all asset classes and provide potential positive entry opportunities for investors. Judging whether the news effects are short-term, mid-term, or long-term is a tricky question.
Related: Analyst: Michael Saylor's Strategy has a 91% Probability of Aligning with S&P 500 Qualification in Q2
Original: “Missiles Fly, Bitcoin Holds, Revealing BTC's Strength in Global Chaos”
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