In the past few days, the news about domestic brokerage firms obtaining cryptocurrency trading licenses in Hong Kong has been widely discussed in both mainland China and Hong Kong, with such high enthusiasm that it has driven significant stock price increases for related companies in both the Hong Kong and A-share markets.
The sensation was caused by Guotai Junan International, a subsidiary of Guotai Haitong, officially being approved to provide cryptocurrency trading services in Hong Kong. This makes it the first Chinese brokerage firm to obtain such a license.
Unlike the compliant Chinese background exchanges we are familiar with (such as HashKey), this company originates from the brokerage sector. The acquisition of a cryptocurrency license by a brokerage firm represents an expansion of its existing business, increasing the potential for business imagination; additionally, the name "Guotai Junan" easily leads one to wonder if this news signifies a loosening of regulations in certain aspects in mainland China.
My view on this remains cautious.
Whether it was the previous hype surrounding stablecoin-related companies or the current excitement over this news, I believe it is more about the release of optimistic sentiment and an elevation of future expectations.
People are optimistic and hopeful that Hong Kong, based on its status as a global free port, can secure a place in the global cryptocurrency ecosystem and attract participants from around the world.
If Hong Kong wants to compete in the global cryptocurrency ecosystem, its direct competitor is the United States. Currently, the U.S. is superior to Hong Kong in both regulation and user base.
In terms of regulation, the U.S. regulatory policies are clearly much more lenient than those in Hong Kong, and the infrastructure of the cryptocurrency ecosystem is also significantly better.
In terms of user base, the domestic users in the U.S. are sufficient to support applications with great imaginative potential, while Hong Kong's reliance is certainly not on its local user base.
In this context, what Hong Kong can strive for is only to attract potential user volume—this, I believe, is the foundation of the aforementioned optimism and expectations.
The core group projected by this optimism and expectation is the 1.4 billion population of mainland China.
However, the constraints of foreign exchange controls in mainland China make it difficult to truly release the dividends anticipated from these expectations.
A few days ago, direct cross-border transfers between mainland and Hong Kong banks were opened. Many media outlets hyped this as a loosening of controls. In fact, this is merely an improvement in transfer efficiency and a reduction in costs; the limits on cross-border transfer amounts have not changed.
In the past two years, mainland residents could apply for accounts at HSBC directly offline and receive a Hong Kong card on the same day, but now offline applications have been halted, and it seems one can only apply online without the possibility of receiving a Hong Kong card on the same day.
These details indicate that foreign exchange controls have not been relaxed.
Additionally, cryptocurrency trading in Hong Kong has always been very strict, and the scrutiny of account holders' identities has not eased.
For example, the most well-known compliant exchange, HashKey, still only allows Hong Kong residents, permanent residents, and mainland residents with legal status overseas to apply for accounts.
Moreover, even if mainland residents obtain a Hong Kong card and use asset trading services provided by Hong Kong banks, there are strict limitations on trading cryptocurrency assets.
Currently, there are no signs of loosening in this area, and I estimate that there will not be any relaxation in the near future.
With no changes in foreign exchange controls and identity verification, the 1.4 billion population of mainland China remains just "a moon in the water, a flower in the mirror," something to be hoped for but ultimately unattainable.
Of course, this does not mean that Hong Kong's policies are ineffective; they are certainly useful and can greatly assist the business expansion and extension of related financial institutions. However, the impact and effects of these policies are significantly different from the fully realized potential that one might imagine. This gap always leaves a sense of regret.
Additionally, when seeing countries on the other side of the globe racing ahead in this field, while the nearby free port feels constrained, there is always an inexplicable sense of dissatisfaction within.
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