Bitcoin Price Watch: Breakout or Breakdown? BTC Hovers in Critical Zone

CN
9 hours ago

The daily chart for bitcoin reveals a short-term bullish structure emerging from a sharp V-shaped recovery off the $98,240 support level. Current price action remains above $105,000, supported by a series of buy signals across multiple moving averages, including the exponential moving average (EMA) 10 at $105,718 and the simple moving average (SMA) 10 at $104,894. Momentum indicators such as the awesome oscillator (AO), momentum, and the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) also register bullish signals, while key resistance stands near $111,816. If volume reaccelerates, bulls may look to challenge this resistance zone in the coming sessions.

Bitcoin Price Watch: Breakout or Breakdown? BTC Hovers in Critical Zone

BTC/USD 1-day chart via Bitstamp on June 27, 2025.

The 4-hour chart exhibits consolidation following a strong advance to $108,358, with price action forming either a bullish flag or a distribution pattern. The range-bound behavior and declining volume suggest indecision, but a breakout above $108,500 on rising volume would validate a bullish continuation. Alternatively, a bounce off the $105,000 support area would offer a safer long entry. The potential exit zone lies between $109,000 and $111,000, contingent on how the price responds to the upper consolidation boundary.

Bitcoin Price Watch: Breakout or Breakdown? BTC Hovers in Critical Zone

BTC/USD 4-hour chart via Bitstamp on June 27, 2025.

The 1-hour chart provides a more granular view of bitcoin’s recent behavior, where the asset is showing signs of short-term bearish pressure after setting a lower high at $108,358. Key support at $106,394 has been tested twice, reinforcing its relevance. Scalpers may find opportunities within the $106,000 to $106,400 range, with upside potential capped near $107,800 to $108,200. Breakouts above $107,500 with elevated volume could trigger momentum-driven trades, though a tight stop-loss below $106,300 is advised for risk management.

Bitcoin Price Watch: Breakout or Breakdown? BTC Hovers in Critical Zone

BTC/USD 1-hour chart via Bitstamp on June 27, 2025.

Oscillators reinforce a neutral-to-positive stance on bitcoin’s current trajectory. The relative strength index (RSI) is at 55, indicating balanced momentum without overbought conditions. The stochastic oscillator at 82 and commodity channel index (CCI) at 50 both remain neutral, while the average directional index (ADX) at 15 suggests a weak trend strength. These metrics highlight the importance of volume confirmation before initiating directional trades.

Moving averages (MAs) present a consistent bullish alignment across timeframes. All key exponential and simple moving averages—from the 10-period to the 200-period—are positioned below the current price, issuing buy signals. This technical structure underscores the sustained strength behind bitcoin’s recent rally, though traders are advised to monitor volume closely as the price nears significant resistance. A failure to sustain momentum could signal a short-term top and prompt a retracement toward tested support zones.

Bull Verdict:

If volume confirms a breakout above $108,500, supported by bullish signals from all major moving averages and momentum indicators such as the awesome oscillator, momentum, and MACD, bitcoin is poised to test the $111,000–$112,000 resistance area. Sustained trading above $105,000, paired with rising institutional inflows, could further solidify bullish momentum and mark the continuation of a broader uptrend.

Bear Verdict:

Should bitcoin fail to break above $108,500 and instead lose the $105,000 support zone on increasing volume, the short-term bullish structure may unwind. With neutral oscillators and declining volume during consolidation, a breakdown could expose the asset to a retest of the $98,240 support, particularly if broader market sentiment turns risk-averse.

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