Bitcoin is oscillating between $100,000 and $110,000, with medium to long-term holders locking in profits.
Although there has been some movement in older coins, one analyst believes this redistribution is typical in a bull market and is confident that the market is absorbing the selling pressure.
Data from Glassnode shows that the oscillation trading price of Bitcoin (BTC) between $100,000 and $110,000 is a result of profit-taking. The data indicates that medium to long-term holders (LTH) dominated the selling, with coins held for 3-5 years realizing $849 million in profits, while the 7-10 year group cashed out $485 million. The 1-2 year group realized $445 million in profits.
Daily realized profits reached $2.46 billion, with a seven-day average rising to $1.52 billion, surpassing the year-to-date average of $1.14 billion, but below the peak of $4-5 billion expected in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Despite the selling by long-term holders, CryptoQuant analyst Yonsei Dent noted a glimmer of hope, as the data suggests that this activity could be net positive.
The spent output age metric highlights the spending time of coins with different holding periods, while the binary coin days destroyed simplifies the data by marking whether long-term holders moved coins on a given day. Dent explained that the continued movement of older coins during a bull market cycle is a positive signal.
Dent stated that despite the selling pressure, BTC prices remain stable, indicating that the market is absorbing the selling due to steady demand.
Dent also observed an increase in activity among coins held for 1-3 years, reflecting profit-taking by buyers from the previous cycle. "If anything, this indicates a shift in market leadership from old holders to new holders," the analyst said, suggesting that this shift signifies strength rather than weakness.
Cointelegraph previously reported that Bitcoin may follow the trend of the S&P 500 index, which has seen positive returns in July for the past decade. The S&P 500 index recorded its highest monthly closing price in June, and historically, July has been the strongest month for Bitcoin.
Since 2013, BTC has averaged a return of 7.56% in July, with 8 out of 12 cycles showing gains, including a 24.03% surge in 2020. The third quarter typically sees strong returns for risk assets, and the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index suggests that a new historical high above $112,000 could occur as early as this month.
In fact, once Bitcoin reaches a new high, this crypto asset may exhibit significant volatility, as suggested by CryptoCon. This technical analyst emphasized the 195 days of sideways movement since December 18, 2024, during which only 36 days saw significant price action. The analysis points to a prolonged "fourth cycle range expansion" phase. This slow cycle aligns with the historical pattern of brief price breakouts masking a broader upward trend.
Since 2023, each major breakthrough for Bitcoin has unfolded within a 30-40 day window, typically followed by a period of consolidation. If history repeats itself, the next breakout could drive prices rapidly up to the $140,000-$150,000 range, followed by another cooling-off phase.
Related: U.S. regulators consider simplifying the listing process for cryptocurrency ETFs
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading activity involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.
Original article: “Bitcoin (BTC) Analyst Says Market Quickly Absorbs Selling, Paving Way for a Bullish July”
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