Key Points Summary:
Bitcoin's price is nearing an all-time high, but derivatives data shows that traders remain cautious and are not actively participating.
The discount of USDT in China and the outflow of funds from the spot Bitcoin ETF highlight investors' concerns about the tense global trade situation.
On Wednesday (July 2), Bitcoin (BTC) briefly rose to $109,700, having earlier tested the support level of $105,200. This surge coincided with the release of eurozone monetary expansion data and signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market.
Despite being only 2% away from its historical peak, traders are still reluctant to go long according to BTC derivatives indicators. This cautious stance has led some investors to question the sustainability of the current rebound.
On Wednesday (July 2), the annualized premium for Bitcoin futures remained below the neutral level of 5%, slightly rising from 4% on Monday (June 30), continuing a trend since June 11. At that time, the indicator was last close to the bullish range when Bitcoin previously tested the $110,000 mark.
While it is difficult to pinpoint a single catalyst for this rebound, the record high in the eurozone M2 money supply in April is likely a driving factor. Data released on Monday (June 30) indicated that M2 grew by 2.7% year-on-year, consistent with the trend of U.S. monetary expansion. Meanwhile, ADP data showed that U.S. private sector employment fell by 33,000 in June.
Some market participants believe that the weak demand for Bitcoin leverage longs highlights concerns about recession risks, especially against the backdrop of escalating global trade tensions. U.S. President Trump warned that if an agreement is not reached by July 9, tariffs on Japanese goods will be raised to over 30%.
According to the Financial Times, eurozone ambassadors have urged EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič to take a tougher stance during his visit to the U.S. this week. It is reported that European capitals are calling for a reduction of the existing 10% reciprocal tariffs, but there is internal disagreement on whether to take retaliatory measures.
To assess whether the cautious sentiment in the Bitcoin derivatives market is limited to futures, it is necessary to further monitor the performance of the BTC options market. If investors generally expect a significant downturn, the 25% Delta skew typically rises above 6%, at which point the premiums for put (sell) options compared to call (buy) options will significantly widen.
Currently, this skew indicator remains at 0%, unchanged from two days ago, indicating that traders believe the risks of price fluctuations are balanced. Although the current market sentiment at the $109,000 price level is relatively muted, there has been some improvement compared to the clearly bearish atmosphere on June 22.
While Bitcoin's price has risen to a nearly three-week high, the demand for cryptocurrencies in the Chinese market continues to weaken from the perspective of stablecoin premiums.
Tether (USDT) is trading at a 1% discount compared to the official U.S. dollar exchange rate in China, which typically indicates panic in the market, as it suggests that investors are withdrawing from the crypto market rather than continuing to buy. Conversely, when demand for cryptocurrencies is strong, stablecoin prices often exceed their pegged rates. The current 1% discount is the largest level since mid-May, reflecting a lack of confidence in Bitcoin's recent rise.
Amid the ongoing tariff war, many investors are concerned about its potential impact, especially after a net outflow of $342 million from the Bitcoin spot ETF on Tuesday (July 1). Overall, the sluggishness and caution in the derivatives market reflect broader macroeconomic uncertainty.
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This article is for general reference only and does not constitute legal or investment advice, nor should it be considered as such. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
Original article: “Bitcoin Rallies to $109,700, Pro Traders Question BTC's Price Momentum”
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