On July 1, Goldman Sachs' economic research team reported that the Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates as early as September this year, with three consecutive reductions of 25 basis points each. This means that the policy rate is expected to fall from the current high of 5.25%-5.50% to a moderate range of 3.00%-3.25%.
The core basis for this prediction includes three points: inflationary pressures are weaker than expected, signs of a softening labor market are increasing, and macro data volatility is intensifying. Goldman Sachs believes that these three factors combined open a window for the Federal Reserve to shift its policy.
Although Goldman Sachs' prediction has led the market to reassess the policy path, not all institutions share the same view. Morgan Stanley emphasized that the current job market remains resilient, and the upcoming non-farm payroll data may show "slowing growth but still robust," which may not be sufficient to prompt the Federal Reserve to act quickly in July or September.
There are also divisions within the Federal Reserve. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee downplayed the risk of stagflation, believing that inflation and unemployment levels have not yet triggered a crisis; while Atlanta Fed President Bostic believes that the impact of tariffs has not yet fully manifested, and there may only be one rate cut this year at most.
- Liquidity returns, risk assets "quench their thirst"
Once the Federal Reserve begins to release liquidity, traditional safe-haven assets and high-volatility assets will benefit simultaneously. The crypto market is inherently extremely sensitive to capital flows; from DeFi to NFTs, from Layer 2 public chains to on-chain derivatives, once liquidity warms up, risk capital is expected to return to the Web3 track.
- Valuation repair, a catalyst for restarting the upward cycle
During the high-interest rate phase, many quality tokens faced systemic discounts in valuation. Rate cuts lead to a decrease in the risk-free rate, combined with the positive effects of Bitcoin halving and the development of mainstream Layer 2, the next round of capital competition is expected to spread from BTC and ETH to narrative-driven segments like AI and RWA.
- Policy moderation, potential marginal improvement in the regulatory environment
Monetary easing is often accompanied by a "soft landing" of administrative policies. Especially in the context of election games, the crypto industry may also have the opportunity to gain higher tolerance in policy. The core logic behind rate cuts is to "prevent economic stall," rather than suppress emerging industries—this is particularly crucial for on-chain innovation.
Of course, potential risks cannot be completely ignored. Goldman Sachs' prediction is based on the expectation of a sustained "soft landing" for the economy, but if inflation rebounds or employment data "reverses upward," the path for rate cuts may still be delayed. If the crypto market anticipates too early, it may face short-term corrections.
Additionally, if rate cuts are accompanied by substantial economic slowdown, it may simultaneously lead to a rise in risk-averse sentiment, potentially dragging down some speculative assets.
For the crypto asset market, which is currently in a consolidation phase, the improvement in the macro environment is undoubtedly a "timely rain." From Goldman Sachs' judgment to the changes in market traders' expectations, we are witnessing a potential turning point in the policy cycle.
If the Federal Reserve's "triple rate cut" materializes in the second half of the year, it will not only signal the release of dollar liquidity but also become an important catalyst for a new round of crypto bull market. For long-term investors, this is a critical period to return to fundamentals and select quality assets.
Related: U.S. employment data sees the largest drop in two years, Bitcoin (BTC) surges to $108,000, squeezing shorts.
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