Tonight at 20:30 (UTC+8), the United States will release the non-farm payroll data for June. Market predictions estimate an increase of 110,000 non-farm jobs, a significant slowdown from the previous value of 139,000, with the unemployment rate possibly rising to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021. The high tariff policy of the Trump administration is seen as the main reason for the weak job market, with companies cautiously hiring amid policy uncertainty. Meanwhile, the possibility of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July is heating up due to economic data expectations, putting pressure on the US dollar.
1. Non-Farm Data Preview: "Hard Data" Signals of Pressure on the Job Market
The expected non-farm employment figure for June is lower than May's 139,000 and April's 177,000, with the unemployment rate expected to rise from 4.2% to 4.3%. Wall Street generally anticipates that the increase in labor supply during graduation season is a short-term factor for the rising unemployment rate, but the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy is a deeper reason.
Since the Trump administration announced high tariffs on Canada, Mexico (25% tariff), and China (additional tariffs) on April 2, market sentiment has remained low. Although some tariffs were suspended for 90 days on April 9, the expiration of exemptions in July still poses long-term risks for businesses. Morgan Stanley's chief economist, Ellen Zentner, stated that if the June data meets expectations, it will confirm the drag of tariffs on the job market, and the summer unemployment rate may continue to climb to 4.5%. If tariffs persist, the US economy could fall into recession by 2025, with the unemployment rate possibly rising to 5.3% and inflation reaching 4.4%.
If the non-farm data is below 100,000, the market will bet more firmly on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July, and the US dollar index (DXY) may fall below 103, boosting assets like gold and BTC. Conversely, if the data exceeds expectations (e.g., over 150,000), it will weaken rate cut expectations, and the dollar may rebound. The probability of a rate cut in July has risen to 25.3%, and tonight's non-farm data will be crucial in determining the outcome.
2. July Rate Cut Outlook: The Federal Reserve's Tough Choice
The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.5% since December 2024, and at the FOMC meeting on June 18, it reiterated the need to "patiently wait for clearer data." However, Powell stated at the European Central Bank's Sintra Forum on July 2 that if CPI or PCE data slows further in the next two weeks, "the possibility of a rate cut in July cannot be ruled out." Fed Governor Waller also hinted that if employment data significantly worsens, a rate cut in July "is not impossible." Market analysis suggests that if the June non-farm data is below expectations (e.g., 80,000-100,000), it will strengthen the Fed's concerns about the job market, and the probability of a rate cut in July may rise to 50%. The market expects a 25 basis point rate cut in September to be more prudent, but inflationary pressures caused by tariffs may force the Fed to act sooner.
3. BTC Analysis: Bullish Trend and Short-Term Adjustment Pressure
Since late June, BTC has shown strong upward momentum, with consecutive daily gains. On July 2 and July 3, it broke through the previous high of $109,000, confirming the upward trend. The hourly chart shows the price oscillating above $109,000, with a slight pullback to $108,500 on July 3, but the overall bullish pattern remains intact. The current price of BTC is $109,465, with a 24H increase of 1.69%.
MACD: The hourly MACD histogram is gradually shortening, with the fast and slow lines approaching the zero axis, indicating weakening momentum; the daily MACD continues to expand, showing strong bullish momentum.
RSI: The hourly RSI value is 62.40, not yet in the overbought zone but leaning towards strength; the daily RSI remains around 70, indicating a strong market state.
EMA: The hourly EMA shows EMA7 > EMA30 > EMA120, with moving averages in a bullish arrangement; the daily EMA also maintains a bullish arrangement, with support concentrated in the $108,400 to $107,500 range.
Short-term Strategy: BTC investors should pay attention to the support level at $108,400; if it breaks, they can wait for a low buy at $107,500; if it breaks above $110,000, they can follow the trend to go long. After the non-farm data is released, be cautious of market volatility.
Long-term Trend: The rate cut cycle and institutional adoption will support BTC's upward movement, but inflation and recession risks caused by tariffs may exacerbate volatility. It is recommended to diversify into gold and crypto assets to hedge against risks.
The June non-farm data is not only a litmus test for the job market but also the first hard-core verification of the economic impact of Trump's tariff policy. If the data meets or worsens expectations, the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July will significantly increase, putting pressure on the dollar and likely boosting risk assets like BTC. However, the dual risks of inflation and growth caused by tariffs put the Federal Reserve in a dilemma. Although BTC appears strong after breaking $109,000, short-term adjustment pressure cannot be ignored. At this critical juncture, investors need to closely monitor non-farm data and the Federal Reserve's movements, seeking opportunities amid uncertainty. As Powell said, "We will patiently wait for data to guide the direction." The market is also holding its breath in this game.
This article is for informational sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice to anyone.
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