1. Market Expects Only 4% Probability of Fed Rate Cut in July

Over the past week, market focus has primarily been on the United States, with various indices almost daily reaching historical highs, reflecting extreme enthusiasm. Notably, asset management companies are increasingly bullish on U.S. stocks, suggesting that market sentiment may be somewhat overexcited. This could lead to overly concentrated positions, and if negative news arises, such as the tariff deadline set by Trump on July 9, market volatility may intensify. Looking ahead to next week, traders will closely monitor the Fed's release of the monetary policy meeting minutes, the latest statements from FOMC voting members, and updates on Trump's tariff negotiations. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week: Tuesday 23:00, U.S. June New York Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations; Wednesday 09:30, China's June CPI Year-on-Year; Thursday 02:00, Fed releases monetary policy meeting minutes; Thursday 20:30, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending July 5; Thursday 21:00, 2025 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Bullard speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy; Friday 02:30, 2027 FOMC voting member and San Francisco Fed President Daly speaks on the U.S. economic outlook. After a significantly better-than-expected non-farm payroll report this week, U.S. data will enter a quieter period next week. According to LSEG data, the market now believes the probability of a Fed rate cut in July is only 4%, and it will not be fully priced in before October. Investors are looking forward to the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index to be released next Tuesday and the Initial Jobless Claims data to be released next Thursday for the latest clues on the labor market.
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2. Coinbase: ETH's Largest Short Position Exaggerated, ETF Inflows Hit Record High

Coinbase's research director David Duong tweeted that the "largest short position in ETH history" is severely exaggerated. He analyzed that the inflow of funds into Ethereum spot ETFs significantly increased in June, with net inflows reaching $1.16 billion. Driven by more institutional participation in basis trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the inflow of such instruments reached a historical high. As of June 24, leveraged funds' short positions on Ethereum futures at the CME have risen from $466 million in early May to $1.6 billion, an increase of $1.14 billion, which closely aligns with the increase in ETF inflows. The reason lies in the basis yield provided by Ethereum futures (relative to spot) at the CME, which rose from an average of 6% in February to 8%-9% in May and June, attracting more institutional investors to buy Ethereum spot and sell futures.
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3. Zama CEO Warns of Counterfeit Token Scam, FDV Reaches $60 Million

Zama co-founder and CEO Rand tweeted, "There is currently no ZAMA token. The one on Pancake is a scam, and its FDV has reached $60 million. Many people will obviously lose their investments, so please be careful."
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4. Suspected Institutions Transfer 6,789 ETH to Binance, Total Transfer Reaches $113 Million in a Week

In the past six days, institutions have reportedly deposited a total of 38,100 ETH into major exchanges, suspected to be related to staking and validation service provider Arthapala. Three of its associated addresses have transferred an additional 6,789 ETH to Binance, bringing the total amount of ETH transferred to exchanges in the past week to 44,889 ETH, valued at $113 million.
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5. Musician Drake Mentions Bitcoin in New Song, Sparks Social Media Discussion

6. OKX Perpetual Contract Funding Rate at -1.00%, Market Bearish Sentiment Rises

The current funding rate for OKX H/USDT perpetual contracts is -1.00%, meaning that shorts must pay funding fees to longs, indicating a high level of bearish sentiment in the market. AiCoin has launched a "Funding Rate" leaderboard on its PC platform, allowing users to view arbitrage opportunities. The funding rate is an important mechanism for anchoring perpetual contracts to spot prices, used to balance long and short sentiments. When the funding rate > 0, longs pay funding fees to shorts; when the funding rate < 0, shorts pay funding fees to longs.
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7. 1confirmation Founder Claims Ethereum is the Cornerstone of Industry Development

Odaily Planet Daily reports that Nick Tomaino, founder of 1confirmation, stated today that the team firmly supports Ethereum, as the entire industry cannot continue to develop without it. He emphasized that the values of trust, neutrality, open-source, and permissionless innovation must be continuously passed down and spread. Tomaino pointed out that some current popular trends, such as venture capital chains and corporate adoption of Ethereum treasury strategies, while not directly related to the aforementioned values, do not mean they are bad. He quoted Hal Finney's perspective from 33 years ago, stating, "Computers can be used to liberate and protect people, not to control them."
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8. Bitcoin Large Transactions Net Outflow of $2.12 Million, Short-Term Pressure

In the past 12 hours, large BTC transactions show that major funds are clearly leaning towards selling, with a cumulative net outflow of $2.12 million and a sell-buy ratio of 1:1.34. Especially in the latest one-hour period, multiple large market sell orders exceeding $1 million have further reinforced short-term downward pressure. Combined with the current price being below the EMA 24/52 moving averages, the overall trend appears weak. The candlestick pattern of a double top and declining trading volume also confirms the resistance level's suppressive effect, and the trend may continue to decline. Immediately activate your membership to track major fund movements and seize precise buying and selling opportunities! Data sourced from PRO members [BTC/USDT Binance 1-hour] candlestick chart, for reference only, not constituting any investment advice.
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The above is a selection of hot topics from the past 24 hours. For faster news, please download AiCoin (aicoin.com).

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