Recently, I have been studying China's economic development.

CN
Rocky
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15 hours ago

Recently, I have been researching China's economic development and have started investing in the homestay and hotel industry. Personally, I believe the next opportunity for China lies not in factories, but in the service industry. To be honest, our success over the past few decades has been built on the "world factory" model. We relied heavily on exports, developed heavy industry, and drove GDP through production, which has been our strength. However, this path is becoming increasingly narrow—global consumption is slowing, geopolitical tensions are rising, and there is a push for de-risking in Europe and the U.S. No matter how much we strive for efficiency, others simply won't buy our products.

So, what should we do? It's simple: we need to shift from an "export-oriented" approach to a "domestic demand-driven" one, from "manufacturing as the foundation of the nation" to "consumption as the foundation of the nation."

📉 First, let's talk about the reality: the service industry is too weak.

Currently, the service industry accounts for about 50% of China's GDP, and employment in this sector is around 47%, while developed countries in Europe and the U.S. have already reached about 70%.

What does this mean? It means we still have a large untapped potential in the "service economy." This is consistent with the path of urbanization we experienced in the past.

You see, young people don't want to work in factories or endure the 996 work culture; they want a life, experiences, and "dignified income." Many young people are returning to their hometowns, using the skills and knowledge they gained in big cities to transform the tourism and service industries back home. This is not about "lying flat," but rather a prelude to industrial transformation.

💡 So, where are the opportunities in the service industry?

1️⃣ Localized service economy

In the past, everyone flocked to big cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou because they had factories, platforms, and opportunities. But now, more and more young people are moving back to second- and third-tier cities to start businesses, create content, and engage in local commerce. This is actually the rise of the "local service economy."

For example: dining, fitness, pets, and cultural tourism in urban renewal;

New consumption experiences combined with the digital economy;

New community services (elderly care, childcare, housekeeping) supported by policies;

These are not the heavy assets of the past, but rather light services, high added value, and creativity-driven businesses. This is the conclusion I reached during my two-month stay and research in Yunnan.

2️⃣ Integration of digital platforms and services

Mobile payments, instant logistics, short videos, and #AI-generated content—these technologies have emerged from the platform side and are starting to be implemented by small businesses and individual entrepreneurs.

What we see is not large platforms selling services, but ordinary people becoming "service providers": nail art, photography, private chefs, tutoring, medical accompaniment… The service industry is moving from centralization to the long tail, similar to how Taobao once empowered a group of small business owners. Now, we are in the era of "service e-commerce." Recently, we have seen many people starting media businesses through #AI videos, achieving significant income and customer sources, which has also stimulated a series of surrounding economic cases.

3️⃣ High-end manufacturing + integrated services

Don't underestimate the combination of "manufacturing + services." Many industrial chains are upgrading, and what they need behind the scenes is a large number of supporting services:

Industrial design

Equipment maintenance

Chip testing

SaaS system services

Industrial AI solutions

This represents the next generation of "technological content in the service industry," not just tea shops and nail salons.

I believe that the service industry is the biggest structural opportunity for China in the next decade. As long as the policy focus shifts from "boosting production" to "stabilizing consumption and expanding services," many opportunities will emerge from the bottom up.

Especially in second- and third-tier cities, real estate is no longer the only growth engine; local services have become the new "new momentum."

What we need to do is: shift the focus of employment to the service industry; redirect fiscal spending from subsidizing production to social security, education, and healthcare, encouraging people to consume; and provide young people with more creative labor opportunities, rather than just making them cogs in a factory.

I have seen many such cases in Anji, Zhejiang, where the local government supports young people in forming digital nomad communities, providing land, financial support, housing, and other resources to attract a younger demographic to the town, creating examples of co-creation and mutual benefit.

Overall, the trend shows that China first used manufacturing to become wealthy, and in the future, it will rely on the service industry to stabilize and strengthen itself. The real opportunity for China in the next decade lies not in factory machines, but in the relationships between people. The service industry is the key leap for China's economy to transition from "speed" to "quality." This is also the underlying logic behind our decision to start building and investing in hotels and projects like trader courtyards.

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