Written by: Chen Ming, Securities Firm China

According to the latest news on July 6, after Musk announced the establishment of the "American Party," he made a new statement. When asked whether the new political party would participate in the midterm elections or presidential elections, Musk replied, "Next year." Subsequently, Musk's comments on the "election timeline" surged to the top of Baidu's trending searches.

Previously, Musk revealed during a poll initiated by netizens that the "American Party" would initially focus on 2 to 3 Senate seats and 8 to 10 House districts, attempting to become a decisive force in Congress through these key positions. This strategy is distinctly different from traditional parties that aim to win a majority of seats.

However, some media commentators noted that the "winner-takes-all" electoral system in the U.S. is not friendly to third-party candidates. Establishing a successful third-party in the U.S. is extremely difficult, even for someone as wealthy and influential as Musk.

Musk Responds on "Election Timeline": Next Year

According to CCTV News, on July 5 local time, following the announcement of the "American Party," Musk made another statement. When asked whether the new political party would participate in the midterm elections or the presidential election, he provided a timeline.

On July 5, Musk announced the establishment of the "American Party" on his social media. In the post announcing its establishment, a netizen asked whether the new party would participate in the 2026 midterm elections or the 2028 presidential election, to which Musk replied, "Next year."

Recently, Musk and U.S. President Trump have had disagreements over the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill. On June 30, Musk sharply criticized the so-called "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill pushed by Trump, stating that if the bill passed, the "American Party" would be established the next day. On July 4, local time, President Trump signed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill into law. A few hours before the bill was signed, Musk again posted a poll on social media asking netizens whether they should establish the "American Party" to "liberate" the American people from the two-party system of alternating power between the Democrats and Republicans. Among approximately 1.249 million votes received, 65.4% were in favor, while 34.6% opposed.

On July 5, billionaire Musk posted on social media: "Today, the establishment of the 'American Party' gives you freedom." Musk made this statement in response to his post from July 4. "The support-to-opposition ratio is 2:1, indicating that you want a new party, and you will have a new party," Musk wrote, stating that America is "bankrupt due to waste and corruption."

Some netizens speculated that the political agenda of the "American Party" might include reducing debt spending, promoting AI technology development, and comprehensive deregulation. Musk responded, "That's right!"

On July 4, Musk revealed during the poll that the "American Party" would initially focus on 2 to 3 Senate seats and 8 to 10 House districts, attempting to become a decisive force in Congress through these key positions. Musk's strategy is distinctly different from traditional parties that aim to win a majority of seats. Musk is targeting becoming the "critical minority" in Congress, aiming to influence policy-making by playing a decisive role in key votes.

Musk pointed out that in the current close distribution of congressional seats, this precise strategy is sufficient to influence significant legislation and ensure that it "truly represents the will of the people."

Can the "American Party" Succeed?

According to U.S. law, the establishment of a qualified political party to participate in elections requires a complex certification process. First, a party meeting or convention must be held to elect temporary officials and designate the party name. It is unclear whether Musk's "American Party" has initiated the relevant procedures.

"Establishing a successful third party in the U.S. is extremely difficult, even for someone as wealthy and influential as Musk," commented Newsweek recently, stating, "History is not on his side."

The report analyzes that although Musk has demonstrated undeniable mobilization ability online, with his posts on the X platform often causing significant fluctuations in financial markets, and his followers being loyal, high-profile, and influential, political organization is another matter. It requires ground action, coalition building, and stable alliances, which cannot be built through memes or live broadcasts. Many political movements that have gained popularity online have often struggled to translate online support into substantial offline impact.

"The systemic barriers in the electoral system—such as strict ballot qualification laws, the Electoral College system, 'winner-takes-all' voting methods, and the blockade of national debate stages—make it nearly impossible for any new party to make real progress without dismantling decades of political structure," the report states. Even with Musk's vast resources and media influence, these obstacles remain deeply entrenched.

Public reports indicate that historically, third parties in the U.S. have struggled to achieve political success. Businessman Ross Perot garnered nearly 19% of the popular vote in the 1992 election but failed to win a single electoral vote. Ralph Nader was labeled a "spoiler" in the 2000 election. Recently, the "Forward Party," founded by Asian-American entrepreneur and former presidential candidate Andrew Yang, has gained attention but struggles to attract significant support.

According to Global Times, Deutsche Welle cited political scholar Bernard Tamas from Valdosta State University, who believes that for a "third party" to succeed in the U.S., there must be a large number of people dissatisfied with existing political options, and the new party must be able to respond to public discontent and build a grassroots movement from the bottom up. Many emerging parties often have unclear stances and fail to genuinely respond to people's strong desire for change.

The report states that while many Americans are indeed dissatisfied with existing political choices, a study by two American political scientists in May 2024 found that Republicans and Democrats dissatisfied with their own parties are actually less willing to vote for a more moderate new party.

Additionally, CNN reported that U.S. political parties are governed not only by the laws and regulations of the Federal Election Commission but also by the laws and regulations of each state, including which parties can appear on the ballot. Emory University political science professor Alan Abramowitz stated, "The setup of the system makes it almost impossible for third parties to succeed."

In the U.S., forming a new political party also faces unique funding obstacles. The McCain-Feingold Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act passed in 2022 imposed strict limits on party donations. The current regulation states that the total amount of donations for different party purposes cannot exceed $450,000. Lee Goodman, former chairman of the Federal Election Commission and attorney, stated that Musk would need to rally thousands of co-donors to raise enough funds for his party.

Goodman told CNN, "Due to the existence of federal campaign donation limits, even an extremely wealthy individual cannot establish a new national party by injecting capital like starting a business. Under the current regulatory system, the idea of wealthy founders providing startup funds to establish a national party and participate in state federal elections is unrealistic."

If the difficulty of forming a new political party is too high, Musk can still exert significant influence through his super PAC, which can accept unlimited funding from him. Such committees can then support independent candidates, who may also find it easier to qualify for the ballot. Goodman stated, "Whether through personal independent expenditures or through super PACs, this remains the most effective way for the wealthy to legally and practically participate in national politics."

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