Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Azuma (@azuma_eth)

Following a trust crisis in March this year due to a manipulation attack on the oracle regarding the prediction of "Will Ukraine reach a rare earth trading agreement with Trump before April," Polymarket has recently found itself once again embroiled in a "truth" controversy related to Ukraine, and compared to the previous incident involving $7 million, this time the event will affect the allocation of a massive $140 million.

• Odaily Note: For details on the last controversy, please refer to “Polymarket faces oracle manipulation attack, can big players use voting rights to 'reverse black and white'?”.

Core Controversy: Did Zelensky Wear a Suit or Not?

The prediction pool in question is "Will Ukrainian President Zelensky wear a suit before July?" The determination standard is "whether Zelensky will be photographed or filmed wearing a suit between May 22 and June 30, 2025, Eastern Time." In February of this year, Zelensky faced criticism from conservative media in the U.S. for not wearing a suit during a meeting with Trump, and since then, speculation about whether Zelensky would wear a suit at formal occasions has been ongoing.

As shown in the image above, the success rate for "No" has risen to 98%, while the success rate for "Yes" has dropped to 2% — so the question arises, June has already passed, and logically, if he wore it, he wore it; if he didn't, he didn't. Why is there still no conclusion on this matter?

The crux of the controversy lies in the fact that Zelensky attended a NATO event on June 24 wearing an outfit that seemed to be a suit, albeit not a traditional one…

Although this outfit does not resemble the typical suit people are accustomed to, major media outlets generally believe that Zelensky did indeed wear a suit.

• The BBC reported on the event stating: “Zelensky took off his military uniform and changed into a black suit at the NATO summit.”

• The New York Post headlined: “Zelensky took off his T-shirt and put on a suit to meet with President Trump.”

• Even Polymarket Intel (@PolymarketIntel), which appears to be the official account of Polymarket, described a video of Zelensky arriving at the venue as: “President Zelensky was wearing a suit last night.”

From the information above, it seems that the outcome of the event will lean towards "Yes," but things are clearly not that simple.

In the article from March, we introduced that Polymarket relies on the oracle UMA to determine the outcome of events, and the determination process is as follows:

• Result Reporting: After the event occurs, anyone can report the result to UMA.

• Dispute Window: After the report is submitted, there will be a dispute period during which anyone who believes the report is incorrect can raise a dispute. If no one disputes, the report result will be accepted; if there is a dispute, UMA's dispute resolution mechanism will decide the final result.

• Dispute Resolution: UMA token holders must vote to determine the correct result, and UMA will incentivize honest behavior while punishing malicious actions.

In this event, although most users tend to believe that "Zelensky did wear a suit," not everyone thinks so. According to Polymarket's process records, the prediction pool has ultimately reached the third step of the process, which means someone has disputed the original report's result, so a vote through UMA is needed to determine the final outcome.

The UMA official governance interface shows that the final result voting for this prediction pool will end in 17 hours. Although the final result is not yet determined, due to some UMA whales voting "No," the prediction success rates on Polymarket have shown a significant disparity.

This situation has sparked significant dissatisfaction within the Polymarket community. As of the publication of this article, the number of replies under the relevant prediction pool has exceeded 24,000, with many users openly expressing their anger.

As the platform, Polymarket has naturally not escaped criticism. Firstly, because Polymarket officials stated after the controversy arose in the pool that "reliable reports have not confirmed whether Zelensky was wearing a suit," but did not explain what constitutes "reliable reports," which raises concerns about misleading the community with vague statements; secondly, some users discovered that Polymarket Intel (@PolymarketIntel), which previously posted "Zelensky wore a suit," has modified its account description to "community-owned," suggesting a possible attempt to shift blame.

In a fit of rage, many users have begun to call for complaints against Polymarket to regulatory agencies such as the SEC, FBI, and CIA through replies under the original post and other social media channels, with some even providing detailed complaint channels and tutorials.

Moreover, overseas cryptocurrency influencer Martin Shkreli has released a video on YouTube stating that he has contacted Polymarket's main investor, Founders Fund, seemingly to apply pressure from the investor side.

At the end of June, news emerged that Polymarket was raising nearly $200 million at a valuation of over $1 billion, with Founders Fund as the lead investor. At a critical moment in the financing negotiations, Polymarket has once again fallen into a trust crisis, and the scale of the funds involved is substantial enough that the community's outcry is growing stronger, which, in the most extreme case, could impact Polymarket's financing progress.

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