This week, the market has returned to the expected game of tariffs and monetary policy. The average tariff in the U.S. for 2024 is 2.5%. Over the weekend, rumors suggested that some countries' reciprocal tariffs would be based on 10%, resulting in a minimum of 20% when combined, which is eight times last year's rate. The tariffs for Japan and South Korea are set at 25%, slightly higher by 5%, but there is room for negotiation, with the U.S. expected to have a bottom line of 15%, potentially gradually reducing from 20%.

The European Union has indicated a willingness to negotiate, with a minimum expected at 20%. China's tariffs are the hardest to determine; after their announcement, the market experienced volatility, with U.S. Treasury yields (20-year and 30-year) breaking 4.9%, increasing pressure on Trump. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell may not cooperate, and Trump might expedite the nomination of a new chairman. The new chairman is expected to lower interest rates and make statements to stabilize the market. If selected from the current board members, Trump may seek to secure more board seats.

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