A person's life is very much like walking in the fog; from a distance, it appears to be a hazy blur, making it difficult to discern direction and fortune. However, when we muster the courage to set aside our fears and doubts and take one step at a time, we will find that with each step, we can see the next part of the path a little more clearly. By moving forward, we can find direction!
If friends checked out the articles on Zongheng yesterday, it was quite clear to judge the direction in yesterday's market operations and to execute the most perfect trades. In yesterday's market, after a peak surge to around 109700, it began to pull back and adjust, which validated our judgment on the market. By placing short positions above 109200, we ultimately profited from this wave of decline. Contrary to our expectations, after the market briefly fell below 108000, the continuous liquidation we hoped to see did not occur; instead, it merely liquidated the newly added long liquidity from the previous day's rise, starting a short-term oscillation around 108000. As a result, our original plan to see a drop below 107000 and then touch around 106200 for a short-term rebound did not materialize. In this situation, the previously mentioned view of seeing a bullish bias above 107000 and turning bearish below 107000 must be maintained.
Returning to the market, in terms of liquidity liquidation intensity, the market clearly dipped, just shy of breaking below 107000, yet it did not fall, causing this position to form residual long liquidity again. It is also noteworthy that when the market hit its lowest point in the morning, the spot premium index dropped to its lowest, and the funding rate increased, indicating a significant situation of futures market buying to support the price. Currently, in the short term, liquidity is mainly concentrated around 107000 for the bulls, while new shorts are heavily accumulating around 109400. As for the current situation, as long as the market does not break below 107000, it seems that the bulls still retain the momentum to oscillate upwards, with confirmation of upward movement dependent on short-term liquidity at 109400, or even higher liquidity at 111000.
On the technical front, the daily chart remains largely unchanged, with the K-line movement in a high-level oscillation. The market is recovering from a dip, operating above the MA7 line. As usual, if the closing line continues above the MA7 line, the short-term bias remains bullish. In terms of technical indicators, the MACD is operating within a bullish cycle, but the volume has not expanded, and both the fast and slow lines are basically running near the zero axis, making it very easy to see a reversal in the current situation, while other indicators also remain flat.
On the four-hour level, after the market dipped, it has rebounded, and the bullish rebound strength is decent, about to change the short-term moving average death cross. The current market has re-established itself above all moving averages, maintaining a bullish oscillation trend in the short term. From a structural perspective, if the four-hour chart can stabilize above 109500, it would represent a typical upward breakout structure. Meanwhile, the current short-term focus should be on the low point of the morning's pullback; if a lower low appears in the structural trend, it would more clearly indicate a shift in the bearish trend.
In terms of operations, for those who took profits on previous short positions, we can continue to attempt a short position near the short-term resistance at 109500. If there is a pullback in the next day or two, the old rule applies: as long as it does not break below 107000, we can continue to look for bullish oscillations.
Ethereum has not recently shown an independent market trend and is highly correlated with Bitcoin's movements, so there is no need to make any operational changes; we can simply refer to Bitcoin's operations.
【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only; please bear the risks yourself. The article is subject to review and publication, and real-time market changes may lead to information lag, making strategies not timely. Specific operations should be based on real-time strategies. Feel free to contact us for market discussions.】
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