Key Points:
The monthly outflow/inflow ratio of Bitcoin has dropped to 0.9, indicating a recovery in long-term confidence and accumulation.
Despite aggressive short pressure in the Binance derivatives market, BTC remains within a narrow range between $100,000 and $110,000.
Over 19,400 BTC have been transferred to institutional wallets, showing strategic positioning by long-term holders.
Since breaking the $100,000 mark on May 8, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has closed above this psychological level every day. Although BTC experienced a dip to $98,300 on June 22, this cryptocurrency is still close to a new high above $111,800.
While the drop to $100,000 is only a 9% correction, one indicator suggests that the price range between $100,000 and $110,000 may become a new bottom before Bitcoin enters a parabolic trend again in the second half of 2025.
Data from CryptoQuant indicates that market activity points to a recovery in long-term confidence, with on-chain data showing outflows significantly exceeding inflows. The monthly outflow/inflow ratio has dropped to 0.9, a level not seen since the end of the 2022 bear market, which historically indicates strong demand.
This ratio measures the balance of the amount of coins flowing out of and into exchanges as a sentiment indicator. A reading below 1 indicates that investors are moving assets off exchanges, typically reflecting accumulation behavior. Conversely, values above 1.05 have previously coincided with increased selling pressure and local market tops.
Notably, this latest decline reflects levels from December 2022, marking a macro bottom for Bitcoin around $15,500. The period before that turning point saw several months of rising prices, supporting the argument that low ratios typically signal price reversals.
The current dominance of outflows and the increased participation of long-term holders provide strong evidence for the formation of a structural bottom. If historical patterns hold, Bitcoin may be approaching a critical demand-driven turning point, potentially marking the beginning of its next bullish phase.
Despite ongoing selling pressure in the Binance derivatives market over the past 45 days, Bitcoin remains resilient within the narrow range of $100,000 to $110,000. Cumulative volume delta (CVD) data remains negative, indicating continued short pressure from traders. However, the price has failed to decline further, suggesting that this liquidity is being absorbed, indicating accumulation.
This structural resilience may be bolstered by on-chain activity pointing to institutional movements. As crypto analyst Maartunn observed, on Tuesday (July 8), approximately 19,400 BTC worth about $2.11 billion were transferred from dormant wallets to institutional-grade addresses. These coins had previously remained untouched for three to seven years, highlighting the significance of this move.
Such transfers are typically not impulsive actions. This type of activity is often related to strategic positioning, indicating that large entities may be intervening while prices remain stable under visible short-term pressure.
The ongoing selling flow, moderate downward response, and large-scale accumulation strengthen the argument for Bitcoin forming a bottom around $100,000. While short-term volatility may persist, potential buying pressure, possibly from institutions, could make sharp corrections below this level increasingly unlikely.
Related: Bitcoin News Update: BTC Range Tightening Suggests Price Breakout to New Highs
Original: “Bitcoin Metric Says $100K Was the Bottom for BTC: When Will It Start Rising to New Highs?”
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
