Key Points:
The surge in U.S. debt and pressure on the real estate market could trigger a significant pullback in BTC to $95,000.
Bitcoin's price remains closely tied to macro trends, including Federal Reserve policies and institutional capital flows.
The total U.S. national debt increased by $367 billion on Monday, reaching a historic high of $36.6 trillion. This surge followed President Trump's approval of a "major good bill" on Friday, which raised the debt ceiling by $5 trillion. Could this be the catalyst for Bitcoin (BTC) plummeting to $95,000?
Analysts, including Kurt S. Altrichter (CRPS, founder of Ivory Hill Wealth), have issued a red alert for the U.S. real estate market. According to Altrichter, a strong indicator that typically surges during past economic recessions has now reached concerning levels.
The inventory of newly built single-family homes is approaching a 10-month supply. Altrichter states that this situation "has only occurred during recessions or on the eve of a recession." He asserts that the weakness in real estate stems from high interest rates, but more importantly, what he calls "demand evaporation."
If this historical pattern—linking real estate oversupply to a broader economic recession—holds true, its impact could weigh down risk assets, including Bitcoin. Even if the long-term effects are favorable for cryptocurrencies, investors' immediate reactions often lean towards risk aversion, favoring cash and short-term bonds.
Jack Mallers, co-founder and CEO of Strike, pointed out on X that the U.S. Treasury's only viable option is to expand the monetary base—an action akin to printing money. Mallers believes the government is unlikely to default on its debt, meaning currency devaluation becomes a last resort. He argues that this creates an ideal environment for Bitcoin to rise.
There are also opposing views: some market participants argue that Bitcoin's breakout above $112,000 on Wednesday is unrelated to fiscal issues or recession fears. Instead, they attribute the broader stock market rally to expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve policy.
Speculation is also growing around Trump potentially pushing to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. If successful, this move could lead to more accommodative monetary policy. Trump has repeatedly urged the Fed to cut interest rates. According to Fox Business, he is currently reviewing candidates to succeed Powell, whose term ends in May 2026.
Despite strong net inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and rising institutional demand, BTC remains closely correlated with the broader stock market.
The correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 is 68%, indicating that the two asset classes exhibit similar price trends. The import tariffs being implemented in the U.S. are another risk factor that could harm corporate profits, particularly in the tech sector, which heavily relies on global trade.
Nvidia (NVDA) became the world's most valuable company with a market capitalization of $4 trillion on Wednesday and may be particularly vulnerable. It is difficult to predict whether escalating trade tensions will trigger a significant drop in tech stocks. While raising the debt ceiling typically boosts risk appetite, the threat of recession could lead to a pullback in Bitcoin to $95,000.
Ultimately, as noted by Strike's Jack Mallers, Bitcoin could still reach a new all-time high in 2025. However, currently, traders seem concerned about whether the AI-driven tech sector can withstand trade conflicts.
Related: Bitcoin (BTC) receives "extremely favorable" signals as DXY hits a 21-year low.
This article is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
Original: “U.S. Debt Rises to $36.6 Trillion: Will Recession Signals Send Bitcoin (BTC) Back to $95K?”
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