In the past two days, the price of $BTC has repeatedly reached new highs, but there have been no significant new positive developments in the market. On a macro level, things remain calm; neither Trump's tariff policy nor China's push for stablecoins and RWA has materialized yet. The core reason for the rise is not an increase in purchasing power, but rather that investors are generally reluctant to sell. Long-term holders are unwilling to part with their assets, and the supply of BTC on exchanges continues to decline, indicating that the market is in a net buying or wait-and-see state.

At the same time, although ETF inflows have reached a new high for this phase, whether this trend can be sustained still needs to be observed. In terms of contracts, prices are rising, but open interest remains low, indicating a lack of clear directional choice in the market. Overall, the market is currently characterized by a typical "supply contraction-driven" slow rise, and future trends will depend on whether policy catalysts keep pace.

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