On July 11, 2025, bitcoin hit an all-time high of $118,839 per coin, and that fresh milestone has lit a fire under prediction markets with a flurry of new bets flying in. Over on U.S.-regulated prediction platform Kalshi, a contract with $1.3 million in volume is placing bets on when BTC will cross the $150,000 mark. Right now, Kalshi bettors see just a 1% shot of BTC hitting that range before August rolls around.

They’re a bit more confident looking further out—giving it a 20% chance by October, and a 43% chance before 2026 kicks off. In a totally different flavor of prediction on Polymarket, where the goal is to guess BTC’s price by the end of July, the odds for the $150,000 range are a bit more generous—clocking in at 3%, noticeably higher than Kalshi’s 1%.

Among the price targets being bet on for July, $120,000 leads the pack with a commanding 75% chance of hitting. The $125,000 level follows with a solid 44%, while $130,000 stands at 20%. As for the long shot, a tiny sliver of participants in the $10 million-plus betting pool sees a 1% chance bitcoin could rocket to $200,000 this month. There’s also a 9% chance BTC could slip back into the $100,000 zone before the month is out.

While no one can say for sure when bitcoin will hit $150,000 or where the price will land by month’s end, but the sheer volume of wagers suggests traders aren’t just watching—they’re deeply engaged. Whether chasing moonshots or hedging against dips, these bets reflect a market driven by bold expectations, speculative energy, and the thrill of trying to stay one step ahead of the next big move.

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