Master Discusses Hot Topics:

Now it seems like every couple of days there's a new high, but the current rise in Bitcoin isn't due to increased buying pressure; it's because fewer people are willing to sell. In simple terms, the circulating chips are becoming scarcer, and the number of sellers is decreasing, so we shouldn't expect a significant drop for now.

Looking at the exchange traffic data from the past year, Bitcoin withdrawals have been increasing, and the amount of coins left on exchanges is quite limited. Most of those who genuinely want to sell are almost gone, so even if there is some fluctuation, it won't create big waves unless systemic risks arise.

That said, we can still look forward to this week. CPI, PPI, and retail sales are all lined up, especially CPI, which the market expects to be quite disappointing. If the data comes in cold, the expectations for a rate cut in September might evaporate.

There will definitely be some short-term volatility, but it's just a matter of a few days; July and August still have crucial data ahead that could potentially bring things back. One more thing to note is that the weekend fluctuations are a bit strange.

If you consider the time from 8 AM to 6 PM as the Asian session and the evening as the US session, you'll notice something interesting. The Asian session is stable, while the US session sees sell-offs. Isn't this reminiscent of the familiar taste of 2023? Some are buying on Binance, while Coinbase is selling.

Back to the market, many people see the price rising and automatically think it should drop. But why not consider that last October, when it rose from 70K to 100K, did it have a pullback at 80K? Did it pull back at 90K? No! At most, it dipped to 88666 and then shot straight to 100K!

And now this trend is exactly like the wave from last July to 110K; the overall trend is upward, and the acceleration hasn't even started yet, and you're shorting? You must be out of your mind.

Although Bitcoin itself isn't facing issues, altcoins need to be cautious. Currently, altcoins rely on sentiment and liquidity, but the problem is that both are lacking. If a pullback occurs, altcoins will likely crash first, not Bitcoin.

The current structure still belongs to the mid-stage of a bullish trend, with a stable continuation pattern. Technically, it resembles the weekly lines from February and November 2024, both of which are halfway through their trends, not at the top. However, the trading volume hasn't kept up, and the spot premium is also lacking.

So if it rises to the weekly overbought line around 134431, and the momentum doesn't keep up, it could indeed be a top. But as long as it doesn't drop below 102394, the logic of a bull market remains intact. Left-side predictions are just guessing the market direction, while right-side following the trend is reasonable.

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Levels Reference:

Second Resistance Level: 122500

First Resistance Level: 121600

Support Levels Reference:

Second Support Level: 120000

First Support Level: 119400

Currently, it remains stable on the rising trend line, and the bullish outlook can continue throughout the day. With a breakthrough at 120K, this level officially transitions from a resistance level to a support level.

From the 1-hour candlestick structure, the next candlestick may show a lower shadow adjustment, and a short-term pullback can be seen as an opportunity to enter. The overall upward structure is maintained, following the 20-day moving average upwards.

If there is a short-term overbought pullback, but it can consolidate around 120K, the subsequent rise will be healthier. The current upward space has opened up, with no obvious top pressure levels; potential resistance can be observed at integer levels like 121K, 121.5K, and 122K.

The first resistance level at 121.6K is the historical high reached during the current short-term surge. If it wants to continue climbing, it needs to establish a support base below. Once it successfully breaks through 121.6K, it is expected to open up greater space.

The key now lies in the strength and rhythm of this pullback; don't blindly chase highs, and try to wait for the price to stabilize around 120K before considering a low buy.

Although a deep pullback is currently unlikely, if it unexpectedly pulls back to 119.4K, it would still be a healthy adjustment. At that time, attention can also be paid to the support of the 20-day and 60-day moving averages below. In the context of increasing volatility, be wary of the main force washing the market.

7.14 Master’s Segment Pre-Set:

Long Entry Reference: Accumulate in the 119400-120000 range, Target: 121600-122500

Short Entry Reference: Not applicable for now

If you genuinely want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than making hasty conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; today they screenshot long positions, and tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they "always catch the top and bottom," but in reality, it's all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have a trading logic that is consistent, self-coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don't be blinded by flashy data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!

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