Life is not a race, but a journey. A race cares about the finish line, while a journey cares about the scenery along the way. A good mood brings good scenery, good vision leads to good discoveries, and good thinking results in good ideas. Comfort gives people ease, but it also leads to an early demise; hard work sharpens people, but it can lead to longevity. People can be imperfect, but they should strive for perfection!
When everyone sees today's title, they might wonder why you opened a short position during the current rise. We actually analyzed this yesterday; before the market starts to correct, we treat it as a bullish market. If the price drops as expected, that's better; if not, it indicates strength, and we need to continue to get on board. This was the core point of the analysis I provided yesterday. Last night, after the market broke through the small range and fluctuated around 118300, it basically confirmed a strong market again. However, today, I personally set up a low-leverage short position near 121300, going against the trend.
Opening this low-leverage short position is based on several points. First, regarding liquidity, in the case of another rise, the short liquidity is continuously being cleared. Currently, the short liquidity above is far lower than the long liquidity, and recently, the market has indeed started to show obvious bullish FOMO, leading to a phenomenon of chasing long positions. The significant drop in the spot market's premium indicates a divergence between spot and futures, which means that the main driver of price increases comes from the futures market, specifically from long positions, and the futures holdings have basically not decreased, indicating that while short positions are being liquidated, the increase in long positions is filling the gap. Therefore, we need to consider whether the market intends to liquidate some long positions.
From a technical perspective, after the weekly close, although new highs are continuously being made, it cannot change the situation of the MACD showing continuous divergence on the weekly chart, and the weekly RSI is also at a high level, in the overbought zone. Similarly, the daily and four-hour levels also show that the RSI has entered the overbought zone. From the four-hour perspective, after continuous rises, the MACD has entered a bullish cycle. If there isn't a particularly violent surge, the MACD will inevitably form a top divergence structure. Currently, we may not be able to predict where the final high point will be, so we are adopting a low-leverage short strategy for positioning. If a rapid surge occurs in the smaller time frame, accompanied by a shooting star candlestick, that should indicate the formation of a top and a top divergence structure.
We cannot confirm whether the chosen low-leverage short position is the most suitable. As I write this, the current market has quickly surged above 122000 and continues to create new highs. What we hope for is to see a topping signal, which will also be our reserved position for adding to our holdings. So now we need to see how the market will proceed. I want to reiterate that I am operating with a 10x leverage on 20% of my position. I am doing this to validate my trading idea, and everyone's position size and trading methods are different. What I do may not be suitable for everyone, and such counter-trend operations carry greater risks, requiring real-time risk control capabilities. Therefore, if anyone has positions, we can discuss them.
In terms of operations, I just introduced our low-leverage short position. For short-term trading, everyone can try to go both long and short with small stop losses, as the current market makes short-term trading quite challenging. It is essential to understand that when doing short-term trading, one must use small stop losses for quick entries and exits.
Ethereum has once again risen above 3000, but the upward momentum has not expanded. For Ethereum now, if Bitcoin rises and then consolidates, it may give Ethereum the opportunity to rise independently. However, there hasn't been a clear trend for Ethereum in the short term. I actually hope Ethereum can pull up the altcoins because I want to short the altcoins. This idea has been quite strong recently because when altcoins correct, they tend to do so more violently.
【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article is subject to review and publication, and market conditions change in real-time. The information may be outdated, and strategies may not be timely. Specific operations should be based on real-time strategies. Everyone is welcome to contact and discuss the market.】
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