Master Discusses Hot Topics:

First, let's talk about tonight's CPI. To put it simply, the market is currently a group of people scaring themselves with a 2.7% expectation, while the previous value was only 2.4%. Even if we conservatively calculate it at 2.64% according to the Cleveland Fed, it is still very likely to be higher than the previous value.

Unless the Bureau of Labor Statistics has a brain freeze and produces some miracle, tonight's data is almost certainly going to be on the hot side. The core inflation is also in the same boat, with a previous value of 2.8% and an expectation of 3%. If you believe it can drop, you are simply underestimating the Federal Reserve.

But here’s the question: even if the inflation data is bad, will the market really crash? I think not necessarily. Because the current market is not focused on how the current old lights are going to handle interest rates; the market has long been betting on how the next Federal Reserve will play.

Returning to the market, last night Bitcoin shot up to around 123.3K and then directly plunged down. The news suggests it’s related to the situation with the U.S. and Canada, and technically, it looks like too many people got overly excited and need to take a break. This also validates my mid-term bearish outlook, and I will continue to hold my mid-term short position from yesterday afternoon until now.

Currently, the technicals are not broken, and the structure is quite stable. But do you think this is the peak? I don’t think so. In this wave, even the main players haven’t really offloaded their positions; they just took a hit to shake out some longs and will continue to push higher later.

With the funding rates skyrocketing, the main players can easily push the price down, and market sentiment has cooled off directly. But this kind of suppression is not bearish; it’s a washout, aimed at moving higher and further.

In the short term, as long as it doesn’t break 106.6K, this is just a shallow adjustment. If it does break, there won’t be a major crash; the daily EMA20 is still supporting below.

Moreover, the spot premium has returned, indicating that this round of selling hasn’t scared people off, and the chips are still in the market. This kind of situation marks the beginning of a consolidation range, likely shaking until the rate cut in September gives you another wave.

Ultimately, in this wave, don’t chase highs and short, or you’ll get hammered back. Bulls shouldn’t get overly excited either; wait for the adjustment structure to stabilize before entering. Tonight’s CPI is good for clearing some leverage; if it really drops, just wait for an oversold rebound to get in. Don’t guess the top, don’t daydream; just follow the structure.

And what does the market love to hear? It loves to hear interest rates below 1%, not that rate cuts are delayed. The main players understand this, and we need to understand it too. Don’t let a few CPI numbers mess with your mindset; the real direction is that they are performing while we are waiting, waiting for a confirmation range to comfortably make a swing trade, all the way to September!

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Levels Reference:

Second Resistance Level: 119000

First Resistance Level: 118100

Support Levels Reference:

Second Support Level: 116500

First Support Level: 115200

The previous upward movement followed by sideways consolidation is in the range of 116.5K to 118.1K, which is also an important support zone. If this range is broken, due to a lack of dense trading support below, a quick drop below 115K is likely.

Currently, we are in an overbought zone, so this adjustment is a reasonable pullback. If 115K is effectively broken, it will open up a larger downward space, looking towards the 112K area.

Currently, I am more optimistic about a sideways consolidation along the upward trend line, continuing to observe the pattern. A long bearish candle would indicate a significant increase in selling pressure; only a larger trading volume than the current one could potentially form a V-shaped rebound, but the probability is low.

If it can regain the first resistance at 118.1K and stabilize between 117.7K and 118K, then there could still be short-term rebound momentum. However, if the rebound lacks volume, it will continue to adjust.

The second resistance at 119K is close to the 20-day moving average, which is a technical pressure zone. The range of 119K to 120K is a strong resistance area; if it reaches this range, there will be a wave of rebound before continuing to adjust.

The first support at 116.5K is the current key support area; if it breaks down with volume, it will trigger panic selling. The second support at 115.2K is where a short-term rebound is likely to occur. If 115K is lost, then the space below will quickly open up to around 112K.

7.15 Master’s Swing Trade Setup:

Long Entry Reference: Accumulate in the range of 116500-117000, Target: 118100-119000

Short Entry Reference: If it breaks below 115200 and fails to rebound, then short in the direction, Target looking for 1500-2000 points

If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, not just look at a few market movements and jump to conclusions. This market is filled with performers; today they screenshot long positions, tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they "catch the top and bottom every time," but in reality, it’s all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger has a trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and stands up to scrutiny, not someone who jumps in only when the market moves. Don’t be blinded by flashy data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are needed to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!

This article is exclusively planned and published by Master Chen (WeChat: Coin Master Chen). If you want to know more about real-time investment strategies, solutions, spot trading, short, medium, and long-term contract trading techniques, and knowledge about candlesticks, you can add Master Chen for learning and communication. A free experience group for fans has been opened, along with community live broadcasts and other quality experience projects!

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