Opportunities are always present. If you can't seize them, don't blame the heavens or others; it's simply because you are not excellent enough. Don't treat time as garbage; only by cherishing time can you enhance the quality of life. Sometimes, taking a detour can lead you to the destination faster. If you're wrong, then stop. It's not always better to rush; grasping the correct direction is the most important!
Yesterday's market should have been within our expectations, right? The bullish liquidation above the short-term high leveraged shorts was followed by a dip, with the rebound peak around 120,000. Currently, the dip low is around 117,700, and overall, it still belongs to a volatile market trend after a high-level dip. In yesterday's operations, if you executed according to our planned strategy, you should be holding a short position around 119,500, which is currently in a floating profit state. I myself have also held onto the low leveraged short position at 121,300 without any changes, waiting to see before proceeding with the next steps.
Returning to the market, the price reached a rebound high in the early morning, completing a liquidation process for the short-term shorts above, as analyzed yesterday. Currently, with another round of downward fluctuations, the bulls have regrouped below, mainly distributed around 116,500. The bears above seem to be losing confidence due to the rebound, and the leverage ratio has started to decrease, forcing the short-term high leveraged shorts from yesterday to retreat. In terms of liquidity distribution, the bullish liquidity below is slightly more than the bearish liquidity. It can be expected that Bitcoin will still experience a pullback, but it may take the form of a volatile pullback to complete the liquidation of the bulls below.
On the technical side, the daily chart shows a bullish candle. From the closing line, yesterday's rebound could not be sustained, causing the closing candle's body to fail to engulf the previous day's bearish candle, thus failing to form a bullish engulfing pattern, which would have indicated a return to strong bullish momentum. Moreover, yesterday's candle was indeed a bullish one, and the consecutive bearish pullback structure did not form, which increases the possibility of short-term volatility. Combined with the overall market movement recently, the market is in a high-level retreat, so the corresponding market will be somewhat weak. On the technical indicators, the MACD volume bars continue to converge, indicating a process of entering a bearish cycle for indicator repair. If the market trend continues to show weak volatility and pullback, it aligns well with the indicator repair needs, while the RSI is basically in a flat oscillation state.
On the four-hour level, we view the drop from the high of 123,200 to 115,700 as the first wave of pullback. If we look at the current structure from the perspective of a pullback, if the market breaks below the low of 115,700 again, it would be a relatively standard pullback wave structure. The high point given yesterday is also the main resistance for the short term; if the high point is not broken, a volatile pullback trend is most suitable.
In terms of operations, we will continue to hold the short position. The short position at 119,500 given yesterday still seems quite appropriate. If there is a rebound during the day, if you don't have a short position, you can also look for opportunities to enter some.
Ethereum has indeed strengthened on its own, so we have not considered shorting Ethereum previously, focusing instead on going long. Yesterday, we were still saying it would reach 3,300, but the actual Ethereum movement was stronger, with the high point reaching above 3,400. Still, the same statement applies: as Bitcoin oscillates downwards, Ethereum's strength aligns very well with the market. Whenever Ethereum starts to perform weaker than Bitcoin, it will be the opportunity to layout short positions, and the same goes for altcoins.
【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article has been reviewed and published, and market changes in real-time may lead to information lag, making strategies not timely. Specific operations should be based on real-time strategies. Feel free to contact us for market discussions.】
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