Recently, the market has been frequently favorable, with the U.S. debt ceiling significantly raised and the national debt balance surging; Trump has publicly stated that he does not rule out the possibility of "firing Powell for refusing to cut interest rates"; substantial progress has been made on the U.S. stablecoin bill; meanwhile, the latest inflation data came in below expectations. Major policy adjustments in the U.S., fiscal dynamics, and macroeconomic factors continue to ferment positively, and BTC has strongly entered a new trading range. However, it is important to note that the BTC price is approaching the upper boundary, and technical indicators suggest that the market may enter a consolidation phase in the next month or two.

$122,000 is the Key Price Level for BTC at This Stage

Historical data shows that over the past 18 months, BTC's movement has roughly followed the pattern of "every $16,000 as a level": $106,000 formed a significant resistance in the first quarter, which evolved into a key support in the second quarter. Following this logic, the next key price level may be $122,000. Recently, BTC briefly touched this level but then slightly retreated, indicating that the market may enter a phase of consolidation to build momentum for the next trend.

Although choosing to "take profits" during a bull market often comes with the risk of missing out on further gains, considering that BTC may enter a summer consolidation phase and the next round of macro catalysts (such as Fed rate cuts) remains unclear, a moderate "locking in profits" is still a rational choice. Data shows that BTC is currently showing signs of being overbought, with the RSI having surpassed 70, and several reversal signals are beginning to show signs of retreat. On a technical level, the $106,000–$108,000 range may become a key support level. Ideally, BTC will retest this support area, complete momentum repair, and then launch another upward assault.

U.S. Economy Better Than Expected, Fed May Pave the Way for Rate Cuts in September

CPI data contradicts the predictions of Fed officials and Wall Street economists, with a slight increase from 2.8% in April to 2.9% in July. The market had expected Trump's tariff policy to trigger a sharp rise in inflation. Among the five recently released inflation data points, core CPI only met expectations once, while the other four were below expectations, suggesting that market concerns about inflation may have been exaggerated.

Current market sentiment generally believes that the Fed will not directly announce a rate cut at the meeting on July 30, but it does not rule out the possibility of starting to release "signals" to pave the way for a rate cut in September. Despite Trump's continued pressure and criticism of the Fed's inaction, the current economic data does not provide the Fed with sufficient reasons to loosen policy: inflation levels remain above the 2.0% target, and even in the context of the new round of tariffs being implemented, the overall performance of the U.S. economy continues to exceed expectations.

Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment should be approached with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.

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