Today, the overall market volatility is controllable, with a slight rise in US stocks reflecting stable sentiment. The adjustments in cryptocurrencies are mainly concentrated on altcoins, indicating that there is currently no widespread liquidity overflow. Although Ethereum has seen a significant increase, the main buying pressure comes from the primary and secondary markets of spot ETFs, rather than crypto-native funds. Therefore, the altcoin season still needs to wait for $BTC and $ETH to stabilize before looking for opportunities.

From on-chain data, Bitcoin's turnover rate has significantly declined, showing that investors are becoming more cautious, and the market has entered a low-activity state akin to "garbage time." On the macro front, Trump announced a 15% tariff on Japan and introduced $500 billion in investments, which has raised market expectations for a tripartite agreement between China, Japan, and Europe, helping to stabilize sentiment. The interest rate path still depends on the selection of the new Federal Reserve Chair, which the market is paying close attention to.

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