Event Review 📈

In just a few hours, the price of Ethereum (ETH) experienced significant volatility. Trading data shows that starting at 22:30, market funds suddenly accelerated into the market, with the ETH price rapidly climbing from about $3,644 to $3,758 in just 41 minutes. The balance of long and short positions shifted, creating an exceptionally heated trading atmosphere. Meanwhile, several major policy announcements and institutional fund inflows became important drivers of the market—ranging from substantial net inflows into Ethereum ETFs, significant increases in holdings by top institutions, to a stabilizing regulatory environment and political factors like Trump signaling expectations for easing. All of this ignited market confidence, leading to a sharp rise in ETH prices in the short term, followed by a quick adjustment in subsequent trading.

Timeline ⏱

• 22:07: Monitoring data shows that the total net inflow of 9 Ethereum ETFs has reached +110,868 ETH, indicating a significant entry of institutional funds.
• 22:15: Market rumors suggest that this month's inflow into Ethereum ETFs is comparable to the same period last year, with a notable increase in institutional buying.
• 22:25: The asset size of the iShares Ethereum ETF rapidly surpassed $10 billion, becoming an ETF product that reached this milestone in a short time.
• 22:28: Top institution BlackRock has cumulatively increased its holdings by over 1,035,653 ETH since early July, marking a positive outlook for this asset from long-term capital.
• 22:30: After the market opened, the ETH price surged rapidly, jumping from about $3,644 to $3,758, an increase of 3.12%.
• 22:32: Reports indicate that the FED is coordinating with the White House to address high-level visits, coupled with Trump’s continued pressure for interest rate cuts, leading to market expectations for easing policies.
• 22:33: Rumors about the expected implementation of the GENIUS Act and a surge in stablecoin supply further boosted market optimism.
• 22:36: Notable analyst Tom Lee announced that BitMine's Ethereum holdings have surpassed $2 billion, highlighting institutional accumulation of ETH.
• 22:49: Technically, the ETH price broke through a key resistance level, with OKX showing a price of about $3,698.56, further releasing momentum.
• 23:01: Market observers noted that with the surge in trading volume, shorts were frequently squeezed out, and long positions were clearly being covered, leading to a significant increase in volatility.
• 23:09: The ETH price broke through the $3,750 mark again, with OKX real-time quotes reaching about $3,752.96.
• 23:14: BitMine Immersion announced that its Ethereum reserves have doubled, with holdings again surpassing $2 billion, injecting strong confidence into the market.
• 23:17: Multiple positive factors converged: US stocks opened higher, institutions like Trump and BlackRock increased their positions, spot ETFs continued to see net inflows, and strategic reserves surpassed $8.6 billion, collectively driving ETH prices upward.
• 23:21: Data shows that Ethereum ETF holdings have increased by about 50% over the past two months, with institutions continuing to enter the market.
• 23:24: After a brief pullback, the ETH price quickly found support in the $3,600 area, with clear signs of accumulation.
• 23:27: Market sentiment warmed, with BlackRock's ETHA ETF assets becoming the third product this year to surpass $10 billion in assets within a year.
• 23:35: Latest monitoring shows that the ETH price adjusted to about $3,722.72, experiencing a technical pullback in the short term.
• 23:36-23:38: Whale activity frequently appeared, with Galaxy Digital accounts transferring out 14,496 and 15,992 ETH respectively, indicating that institutions were timely adjusting their risk management in a highly volatile market.

Reason Analysis 🔍

The recent surge in ETH prices is underpinned by multiple positive factors, mainly reflected in:

• Stabilizing Macroeconomic Policies
  Recently, the US House of Representatives passed landmark cryptocurrency legislation, including a stablecoin regulatory bill, along with the impending implementation of the GENIUS Act, sending clear policy signals to the market. These measures help "legalize" the market, reduce regulatory uncertainty, and accelerate institutional fund inflows.

• Massive Inflows of Institutional Funds
  Data shows that the total net inflow of 9 Ethereum ETFs has reached hundreds of thousands of ETH, while top institutions like BlackRock and BitMine continue to increase their holdings, publicly signaling a positive long-term outlook for ETH. The fierce push from institutional fund inflows has led to a rapid breakthrough of prices at technical resistance levels.

• Market Sentiment and Increased Fund Turnover
  The market is not only supported by macroeconomic conditions and favorable policies, but technical indicators show a surge in trading volume and prominent explosive order data, with short positions accounting for as much as 84%, indicating that both long and short sides are actively adjusting their positions amid significant volatility, reflecting extremely active sentiment.

Technical Analysis 📊

Based on the 45-minute candlestick chart of Binance USDT perpetual contracts, the current technical characteristics are as follows:

• Indicator Signals

• The price rebounded at the upper Bollinger Band; although the proximity to the upper band usually suggests potential overbought conditions, it may also serve as a short-term sell signal.

• The KDJ indicator shows signs of a death cross, suggesting potential reversal risks in the short term; at the same time, the indicators are converging, indicating that current trend momentum may be slightly weakening.

• The OBV indicator has crossed below the moving average and turned negative, indicating that market buying power is gradually weakening or there is a risk of panic selling.

• Moving Average Structure

• MA5, MA10, and MA20 are in a bullish arrangement, showing strong bullish signals in the short term;

• The price is currently above EMA5/EMA10/EMA20/EMA50/EMA120, indicating a clear overall upward trend;

• The RSI has broken through the upward trend line, enhancing short-term bullish signals, but the current price is close to the upper band, suggesting a potential pullback.

• Volume Changes

• In the past hour, the total explosive order amount across the network reached $10 million, with short positions accounting for 84%, indicating significant selling pressure in the market;

• Major net inflows of nearly $80 million in large transactions indicate that despite some selling pressure, institutional funds are still supporting the overall price.

Overall, from the 45-minute ETH/USDT perpetual contract chart, although short-term buying pressure is strong, some technical indicators also reveal risks of nearing overbought conditions and panic selling, necessitating caution regarding short-term adjustment trends.

Market Outlook 🔮

Looking ahead, ETH may continue to oscillate between $3,500 and $3,800 in the short term. Key considerations include:

• Long-term Support from Continued Favorable Policies
  As US regulations gradually clarify and stablecoin policies are implemented, institutional funds are expected to continue flowing in, and long-term bullish sentiment will lay a solid foundation for ETH prices. However, in a highly active market, short-term technical pullbacks are also inevitable.

• Attention to Technical Divergence
  Although short-term moving averages and RSI show strength, the upper Bollinger Band and KDJ death cross suggest that some selling pressure may prompt adjustments in the short term. Future investors should pay attention to the important support level at $3,500 and the resistance range near $3,800 to timely adjust risks and positions.

• Risk of Institutional Position Adjustments
  The cross-account adjustments and frequent transfers of whale funds also remind the market that after a short-term surge, there may be risks of fund reallocation and position adjustments. Investors should monitor institutional movements, explosive order data, and large transactions to anticipate shifts in market sentiment.

In summary, while ETH's recent performance is bolstered by macro policies and large institutional fund inflows, it also presents risks of overbought pullbacks in the short term. It is recommended that investors manage their positions and monitor technical indicator changes while following market trends rationally.

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