Today has been another day of gastrointestinal distress, especially since I have to go out tomorrow. I don't know what's been going on this past month, but when I get back this time, I need to do some serious conditioning. Fortunately, this weekend's script has gone as expected; the three-piece set has not let me down. After $BTC returned to $118,000, my long position has already gained over 22%. I'm still considering whether to close it on Sunday or wait until Monday; I haven't decided yet.

Of course, there are currently no issues in the market, but as the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting approaches, emotions may become a bit unstable. Theoretically, Powell will likely continue with the previous approach, but this time the probability of a dovish statement may be much higher than a bearish one. I'll think about it some more.

Looking at Bitcoin's data itself, the situation over the weekend is pretty much the same. The turnover rate has started to decline, and trading volume has begun to decrease, but sentiment is gradually rising as the ancient whales finish their sell-off. We've been saying for two months now that the current situation for Bitcoin is not about high buying power, but rather that there are fewer and fewer investors choosing to sell.

However, when the price rises due to selling pressure, there are still quite a few American investors buying in, which supports the price. So as long as there are no systemic risks, BTC's price remains quite stable, especially since it is still highly correlated with the U.S. stock market.

The current focus remains on tariffs and monetary policy. The progress on tariffs is nearly complete, particularly with the EU and China; the EU has a good chance, but I'm not so sure about China. As for monetary policy, that will be on Wednesday.

Data address: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1E9awSVwrVOxKOiaMdYT5YZvfveeFd9ENU-iO6dVcGj0/edit?usp=sharing

This article is sponsored by #Bitget ｜ @Bitget_zh

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