Life is about the process, just as life is about growth. Simplicity is not tasteless, but the true flavor of life; simplicity is not without desire, but what is sought is the essence of life. Majestic mountains can offer us wonders, but the fragrance of rice and waves of wheat on the plains can satisfy our true needs. Any brilliant life will find tranquility in peaceful memories!
The recent market situation has been quite interesting. On Friday, the market dipped below 115,000, only reaching a low around 114,700 before beginning a process of oscillation and recovery. To be honest, after breaking below 115,000, I initially thought the downward momentum would continue, but it did not turn out that way. This led to some deviations in our operations. Originally, on Thursday, we planned to short at 118,500, expecting a drop below 115,000 to enter long positions. However, with the market showing weakness on Friday, we believed that a short-term bullish liquidity near 114,000 would be completely liquidated before a recovery adjustment. Thus, we intended to enter long positions around 114,000 and planned to short again near 116,800. Subsequently, the market dipped again to around 115,000 after reaching 116,700, but after another recovery, it oscillated up to the current level above 118,000, which caused our subsequent short positions to be stopped out, resulting in a loss of the original profit.
Today is Sunday, and regarding the market, there have been some changes in liquidity. Currently, there is more bearish liquidity in the short term, with the main bearish liquidity concentration around 119,500, primarily due to the recent oscillating upward market and the addition of short-term high-leverage bearish liquidity. Meanwhile, bullish liquidity is more accumulated around 116,700. According to the recent market trend, in a predominantly oscillating market, there have mostly been actions to liquidate both short-term bullish and bearish liquidity, which aligns with the market's operation in oscillation. Therefore, it is important to pay attention to the short-term liquidity liquidation.
On the technical side, the daily chart on Friday showed a bearish candle with a long lower shadow, and the current price is still below the MA7 daily line, with the death cross of the MA7 still present. Thus, in terms of the current market structure, we do not view it too strongly in the short term. On the technical indicators, MACD is still in a bearish cycle, but as of now, the bearish cycle has not shown significant strength. After oscillating and recovering, RSI has begun to operate in the mid-range area. Since today is Sunday, there has been no significant market movement during the day, so we need to focus on the evening and early Monday's market. If the daily chart does not form an upward breakout above the MA7 line in the short term, there will still be a need for a pullback under this pressure.
On the four-hour level, the structure resembles a typical bottoming recovery pattern. The market started to rise from around 114,700 and has returned to the previous oscillation price level. It is important to note that the rise starting from 114,908 seems to be forming a push pattern, rebounding to the 0.618 position of the last segment of the decline. This movement suggests the possibility of a bottom forming at the lower probing low. We need to observe the pullback strength of this rise; as long as it does not break below the level, it will be a relatively high cost-performance opportunity to enter. On the technical indicators, MACD is in a bullish cycle but is moving relatively slowly, making it difficult to determine the target high point for the rise. RSI is in a mid-to-high position, and the ideal scenario here is for the rise to liquidate the short-term bearish liquidity above, at which point the indicators will also be at a high level, necessitating a pullback for correction.
In terms of operations, we will continue to operate with an oscillating mindset. We will short when first touching around 119,500 and enter long positions when the market retraces to around 116,700.
【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article is subject to review and publication, and market changes in real-time may lead to delays in information, making strategies not timely. Specific operations should follow real-time strategies. Feel free to contact us for market discussions.】
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