Viewpoint: When manipulation becomes the only driving force behind price increases, the Solana ecosystem has entered the end of its cycle.

Author: miya

Translation by: Deep Tide TechFlow

What have you observed if you have traded on Solana in the past few months?

Here are my observations. Tokens like "N*iggabutt" once surged from a market cap of $1 million to $8 million due to a leaked photo of Mike Tyson's butt. Now, the market is gradually shifting towards more rational logic, beginning to view "bundled bullish" as the only possible way to drive prices up. The speculative frenzy in the crypto market is undergoing an interesting transformation.

Y22 is a high-frequency on-chain trader primarily active on the Solana chain.

Current market phenomena indicate that only two types of tokens can achieve value growth: one is "manipulation tokens," including bundled tokens, FNF tokens (Deep Tide note: "Friends and Family tokens," early allocations at discounted prices to friends, family, or connections of project founders), and tokens manipulated by deep insider trading; the other is "yield tokens," such as HYPE and ENA. This phenomenon reveals a harsh reality: either "manipulation" dominates the market, or we return to a traditional capitalist value assessment system.

When "manipulation" becomes an important indicator of whether a token's price will rise, we can conclude that the current on-chain cycle has entered its end. On the surface, the "health" of the on-chain ecosystem seems better than the actual situation, but in reality, some participants are using "manipulative behavior" as a tool to artificially drive up the prices of certain tokens through market manipulation.

Analysis of the health status of the Solana chain ecosystem.

This phenomenon is not new; it is a repetition of history. A classic example is the Sumitomo Copper Affair from 1985 to 1996. In this incident, a single trader, Yasuo Hamanaka, weaponized manipulation by illegally establishing billions of dollars in long positions, attempting to maintain the appearance of market prosperity, even as the actual market health continued to deteriorate.

Capitalism, in the short term, resembles a voting machine, driven by emotions and speculation; but in the long term, it is a weighing machine that ultimately reveals the truth.

The current "Crime Gap" on the Solana chain (Deep Tide note: describes the true health status of the market obscured by opaque operations, misconduct, or manipulative means) is a curtain that conceals the truth. When you delve into the intentions of insider trading groups, the control of over 70% of the liquid supply by project parties, and traders using "manipulation" as a competitive advantage, you can glimpse the shadows hidden behind the curtain.

However, this manipulation model will eventually collapse. Just like the Sumitomo Copper Affair, as Sumitomo's positions were liquidated in mid-1996, copper prices quickly fell back to previous lows. The "Crime Gap" of Solana will also disintegrate in a similar manner, and the true health of the market will ultimately be revealed. History has repeatedly proven that the truth of capitalism cannot be permanently concealed.

My view on Solana's "Crime Gap" is that the apparent activity and prosperity are actually a game dominated by insiders through bundled tokens and artificially manipulated liquidity. Here, manipulation is not only hidden but has become a competitive advantage. However, just as Yasuo Hamanaka manipulated the Sumitomo copper market, this gap will inevitably lead to collapse. So, how will it disintegrate?

Solana is a self-exploiting casino—only able to survive under slow, steady liquidity inflows. The moment $PUMP decides not to conduct large-scale airdrops, the music stops. What you hear now is just an echo of something that once set the whole city ablaze. The "Crime Gap" will eventually collapse—and when it does, it will be brutal.

Why? Because we are already at the end of this cycle. When you combine the deteriorating macroeconomic environment with the fragility of the artificially supported on-chain economy, the result is massive capital withdrawal.

The liquidity of manipulators in Memecoins has only one goal—to leave. There are no future cash flows, no utility, and no trust. Only insiders take turns trying to extract value before the lights go out. This is why Memecoins are so dangerous in the current cycle. When people generally believe that the asset is fundamentally worthless, the only remaining consensus is to sell. This means the only goal of insiders becomes clear: to deceive as much as possible before the curtain falls.

When the Crime Gap falls, what will prevail? Capitalism.

To believe that cryptocurrencies will always have the attributes of a large casino, and to think that Memecoins are always the most positive expected value (+EV) bets simply because of a poor experience with utility tokens, is overly naive. As traders, we begin to believe in any currency that can bring the greatest returns (green candles). Memecoins inherently create a favorable environment for maximizing returns (especially at the end of a cycle) because you can "manipulate" without violating SEC rules and without bearing any responsibility. I believe this is just the natural state of the late cycle, not a new normal that will prevail forever.

We will see the pendulum swing back to utility tokens again. The internet capital market is not a bad concept, but I firmly believe it has been deployed on the wrong blockchain. While we can break the feedback loop of the lack of market appeal for utility tokens, we cannot break the feedback loop driven by human addictive behavior. As for the culture of Solana, I believe it has, to some extent, self-destructed. This is more my opinion than a conclusion drawn from observations.

Disclaimer: I am not saying that it is the trader's responsibility to short "manipulation." Absolutely not! If you really want to take action, it should be to go long on it.

Traders should believe that the manipulative actions of others to drive up token prices are a net gain for holding that asset. In trading in this market (especially on-chain), it is very dangerous to be in an ivory tower of moral superiority. You may end up marginalized because you feel you have a higher moral obligation not to participate in this scam. The real black pill is that not only this industry, but the entire world is full of fraud.

I see many traders develop this moral complex after learning the true identities of market makers, exchanges, anonymous traders, and the truth about insider information flows. I myself was troubled by the same illusion for several months. Don’t be the one shouting at the system; embrace it, embrace the tricks of the Jews, embrace the worst-case scenario, embrace Israel, embrace Trump's manipulations, embrace Epstein's suicide, and ultimately you will understand the market better than ever before.

So, if you don’t plan to reduce risk by shorting, what other options are there?

I personally decided to significantly reduce risk in August:

Another option is to look at other blockchains, like Base, which has been performing well but no one is talking about. The liquidity injection of cryptocurrencies like ZORA should not be underestimated. I personally moved some funds to Base in the past few days and increased my risk exposure there instead of throwing myself into Solana.

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