Core Points:
Based on halving cycle fractal analysis, Bitcoin may reach a cyclical peak of $150,000 in October.
New Bitcoin investor activity continues to rise, indicating that there is still room for market growth.
Bitcoin (BTC) may be entering the final phase of the current bull market cycle, as historical halving event fractal analysis suggests that the next significant market peak could arrive in just three months in October.
A cyclical 'tick tock' fractal tracked by analyst CryptoBullet shows that Bitcoin typically peaks about 518 to 546 days after each halving event. The most recent halving event occurred on April 15, 2024.
As of the end of July, if historical patterns repeat, Bitcoin has entered a critical phase, with only 77 days remaining until the BTC price establishes a post-halving bull market high.
CryptoBullet notes:
This sets the timing for the next potential peak in October. Numerous analysts predict that the BTC price will reach the range of $130,000 to $150,000 by the end of the year, with some experts even expecting the bull market to surge towards $200,000.
On-chain data further supports the view that Bitcoin prices will continue to rise in the coming months.
A key metric released by CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. compared the activity of new and old investors, showing that new coins representing recent buyers currently account for 30% of overall market activity.
The current level of 30% is far below the overheated peaks of 64% in March 2024 and 72% in December 2024.
Both of these spikes coincided with local price peaks, indicating that when new investor activity dominates the market, it typically marks a period of euphoria and profit-taking.
In contrast, the current reading suggests that there is still room for further market growth before such conditions arise.
This upward trend indicates that demand from new entrants is increasing. Meanwhile, long-term holders have not shown signs of large-scale selling.
Adler Jr. wrote in his analysis: "Old holders are still selling moderately: a coefficient of 0.3 indicates that the supply of three-year-old coins is still being steadily absorbed by new demand, without significant fluctuations." He further added:
This ongoing balance is partly due to strong absorption by institutional investors. Corporations and ETFs continue to accumulate Bitcoin at a steady pace, effectively offsetting intermittent selling pressure.
As a result, these large participants' adequate absorption of supply has successfully controlled short-term selling pressure, maintaining a healthy market structure while pushing the market further into the later stages of the bull market cycle.
Related: Reports indicate that CoinDCX employees have been arrested for their alleged involvement in a $44 million cryptocurrency hacking incident.
Original: “Viewpoint: Bitcoin 'tick tock' fractal predicts $150K BTC price peak in October”
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