Key Summary:
Derivatives data shows that despite the recent rise in ETH prices and strong ETF inflows, traders remain cautious.
While network activity growth has stagnated, Ethereum faces competitive pressure from Solana and BNB Chain.
The price of Ether (ETH) has surged 56.5% in the past 30 days; however, ETH derivatives indicators suggest that traders are still taking a cautious stance.
This sentiment may reflect market concerns, as Ether has repeatedly failed to break the psychological barrier of $4,000 since March 2024. The continued weakness in Ethereum's on-chain indicators further exacerbates investor disappointment.
The annualized funding rate for Ether perpetual futures fell to 9% on Thursday, indicating a decline in demand for leveraged bullish positions. In contrast, a funding rate of 19% from Friday to Monday had shown moderate market enthusiasm. Currently, the funding rate has returned to levels seen on July 7 when ETH traded close to $2,600. Given that ETH has risen 46% since then, this phenomenon is surprising.
Some traders' disappointment stems from an 11% decrease in network deposits. On Wednesday, the total locked value (TVL) in the Ethereum ecosystem dropped to a five-month low of 23.4 million ETH, down from 26.4 million ETH 30 days ago.
In comparison, Solana's TVL in SOL terms only decreased by 4%, while BNB Chain's deposits in BNB terms grew by 15%.
According to data from DefiLlama, Ethereum has also lost its leading position in decentralized exchange (DEX) trading volume, with $81.4 billion in activity over the past 30 days. In contrast, Solana processed $82.9 billion, while BNB Chain led the market with an astonishing $189.2 billion in trading volume during the same period.
Analysts point out that network activity is crucial because, ultimately, transaction fees are essential for paying validators and encouraging other decentralized applications (DApps) to build on the network.
Therefore, even if Ethereum maintains its lead in TVL and active developers, these advantages will be of little significance if network activity stagnates compared to competitors.
To determine whether ETH whales and market makers have adopted a more cautious attitude, analyzing the ETH monthly futures market is particularly important. Under normal circumstances, these contracts should trade at an annualized premium of 5% to 10% to compensate for the longer settlement period.
Currently, the annualized premium for ETH futures is 6%, down from 8% on Tuesday, and has remained in a neutral range over the past three weeks.
Notably, this decline in bullish leverage demand occurs amid nearly three weeks of net inflows into spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
The lack of enthusiasm at the $3,800 price point for ETH may stem from market concerns that competitors Solana and BNB Chain are more user-friendly due to their higher underlying capacity.
Additionally, the market is worried about the long-term impact of corporate holdings of Ether reserves, which have played a significant role in Ethereum's recent price increase.
According to data resource Strategicreserve.xyz, nine publicly listed companies have each accumulated at least 2,000 ETH, including Bitmine Immersion Tech (BMNR), SharpLink Gaming (SBET), and The Ether Machine (DYNX).
Industry experts believe that if corporate reserve purchasing activity continues, ETH could rise to $5,000. However, currently, traders remain skeptical and do not see the $4,000 price point as within reach.
Related: The White House cryptocurrency report is a mixed bag for Bitcoin (BTC) supporters
Original: “Ethereum (ETH) Derivatives Lack Momentum, Raising Doubts Over $4K Rally”
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