The world is bustling, all for profit; the world is bustling, all for profit to go! Hello everyone, I am your friend Lao Cui, focusing on digital currency market analysis, striving to convey the most valuable market information to the vast number of coin friends. I welcome everyone's attention and likes, and reject any market smoke screens!

Once again, the market is declining, and August is destined to be extremely unusual. More and more friends are consulting Lao Cui about the specifics of spot layout. Although I reminded everyone yesterday that August will be the lowest point of the entire second half of the year, there are still users questioning this matter. When the market is declining, people only doubt whether the bull market has ended? This is also the thought of many investors. Starting from August 1, Hong Kong's stablecoin license has officially begun to be sold, marking the formal compliance of stablecoins. While paying attention to the market, many friends are also asking Lao Cui what impact the compliance of stablecoins will have on the crypto world? In response to this question, Lao Cui's answer is very simple: these are completely two different markets, and they may even form a competitive relationship. The stablecoins that everyone understands are more like tradable currencies at a strategic level, and our traditional cryptocurrency industry, including the stablecoin bill proposed by Trump, is also different!

The synchronicity of Bitcoin comes more from the consensus of the gray and black industries, thus driving the crypto market. The role of stablecoins is different; they are more like legalized traditional currencies. In short, stablecoins issued at the national level are generally pegged to the local currency or other corresponding legal currencies. Hong Kong and the U.S. are pegged to the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds, which can only push up the application of the dollar. Currently, the stablecoins with legal licenses in circulation have not flowed significantly into the crypto market, and the recognized stablecoin in the crypto world is still USDT, which accounts for more than half. National-level stablecoins can only circulate in traditional financial markets, and the U.S. is no exception. Stablecoins will only become currencies circulating between countries, not what we understand as increasing the value of the crypto world. Therefore, in the future, do not link the growth of stablecoins with the crypto world; in a certain sense, these are completely independent markets, and everyone should not confuse them.

With the downward adjustment of employment positions in the U.S. yesterday, Trump was completely enraged. He directly posted to criticize the head of the statistics bureau. Trump and the Federal Reserve have always been at odds, which has led to a direct reverse plunge in the U.S. stock market and the crypto market. The data falsification in the U.S., which Lao Cui has been reminding everyone about since last year, has caused the financial market bubble to surge under the fermentation of public opinion. If what Trump said about the 818,000 jobs inflated since 2024 is true, it is likely that we will see a downward decline before the end of August. In comparison, the U.S. stock market evaporated 1.11 trillion in one day, and the impact on the crypto market is relatively mild. This event marks a historic turning point for the entire market before the interest rate cut. As risks increase, it also represents the arrival of opportunities. When you see shorts, you must seize the spot. Many friends do not quite understand Lao Cui's approach; Lao Cui's control over the spot is to start bottom-fishing from the decline.

Yesterday, the average price of SOL was still at 175, and today, with the arrival of replenishment, the average price has reached around 168. As soon as it starts to decline, replenishment must begin. Currently, Lao Cui's idea is to open a position every ten points. I will keep replenishing until the bottom position. Once the market reverses, Lao Cui will be close to profit at around ten points. Although the entire process basically starts with a loss, the process is not important to Lao Cui; this is merely aimed at initiating a trend. More friends who find Lao Cui hope to start bottom-fishing at an absolute low point, but Lao Cui often looks down on this idea. No financial market can allow retail investors to catch the lowest point; if there are too many retail investors at the lowest point, there will be even lower points. Simply put, our relationship with the giants can only be that of competitors. This is intuitively explained in the contracts; what we do is against the opposing positions. When you profit from your contract, there must be someone else who is losing.

Currently, the probability of an interest rate cut in September is gradually increasing, reaching 81.9% (a 25% cut). Regarding the timing of the restart of the bull market, Lao Cui is more willing to focus on the early layout. The estimated duration of this bearish trend is at least two weeks; its arrival is already a blessing. Everyone needs to abandon the idea that the bull market has ended and make corresponding layouts based on the trend. So regarding everyone's question, can we enter the spot market? Lao Cui's approach is as follows: if you want to enter at a lower point, there is still a long time until the interest rate cut, and you can wait for the market to drop a bit more before entering. Regarding deeper issues, Lao Cui estimates that Bitcoin needs certain capabilities to drop below the 110,000 mark, and even a strong Ethereum needs some effort to go below 3,000. The current crypto market is already different from before, especially during the Asian trading hours, there is still a certain buying power, and the downside space will not be too large, as the layout of the big players is also centered around the interest rate cut cycle.

Regarding the contract level, the Ethereum price that was stabilized at 3700 yesterday afternoon did not succeed. Although the trend prediction has a certain accuracy, the short-term level can currently only be based on stabilizing key positions. Short-term trading is not suitable for contract layouts, and the current short-term can only be against the spot. As long as you enter the market according to Lao Cui's method, the contract can only be used to offset the losses from the spot. This means that contracts should be primarily short, and do not choose to go long. This response method can effectively reduce risks, and once the market reverses, you only need to abandon the losses from the contracts. Lao Cui's use of contracts is mainly to offset long-term losses from the spot with profits. Moreover, the current market is not suitable for capturing short-term long profits; although the bull market is the overall trend this year, the profits from the bull market still rely more on the spot to occupy most of the space. Currently, the users in Lao Cui's hands still have Bitcoin from the 30,000 period. The bull market is nothing more than a comparison of who has more patience. Some users entered around 100,000, and Lao Cui has forgotten how many there are. Everyone must hold on until the end of the year before discussing profits.

Lao Cui's summary: If the questions of everyone are basically the same as those of most users, Lao Cui will respond to everyone more through articles, so not every message has received a reply from Lao Cui. Indeed, the recent market fluctuations are too large, and Lao Cui's focus will be on users and himself. If you have questions, you can leave a message for Lao Cui, and he will try to reply to everyone after seeing it. In summary, Lao Cui's estimate of the trend is that before the interest rate cut, it will mainly be a correction, with Bitcoin's depth between 10,000-20,000 points, and SOL's depth will maintain at a range of dozens of points at the lowest. Ethereum is the hardest to estimate, as the overall volatility space will be larger, with fluctuations of 300-400 points occurring in just one day. Therefore, this round of layout does not include Ethereum. Including the form of contracts, everyone should also try to avoid getting involved with Ethereum, and consider Bitcoin and SOL more, as these two are relatively stable. Of course, if you want to be more stable, you can consider entering BNB. Currently, the only cryptocurrency that has not failed is BNB, which is so stable that both losses and profits are not too large. If you need to enter the spot market at a lower position, you can consider waiting for about another week. If you enter the market according to Lao Cui's method, you can directly take a 10% position at the current price, then 20% for the next position, followed by 30%, and finally 40% for the last position. Enter contracts primarily short to offset spot losses!

Original creation by WeChat Official Account: Lao Cui Talks About Coins. For assistance, you can contact directly.

Lao Cui's message: Investing is like playing chess; a master can see five, seven, or even more than ten moves ahead, while a novice can only see two or three moves. The master considers the overall situation and the big trend, not focusing on one piece or one territory, aiming for the final victory. The novice, on the other hand, fights for every inch of land, frequently switching between long and short positions, only competing for short-term gains, and often finds themselves trapped.

This material is for learning reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading based on this is at your own risk!

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