1. Market Observation
Since last Friday, there have been continuous upheavals in the global macroeconomic and policy landscape. The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July fell far short of expectations, with only 73,000 jobs added, and the data for May and June was significantly revised down by 258,000, causing market turbulence. This directly led to U.S. President Trump firing the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Erica McEntyre, accusing her of falsifying data, which intensified concerns about the quality of federal economic data. Meanwhile, the sudden resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler provided an opportunity for Trump to appoint a governor who might support interest rate cuts, significantly raising market expectations for a rate cut in September.
As a result, combined with the pressure from new tariff policies and OPEC+ production increases, global risk assets are under pressure. Goldman Sachs' Tony Pasquariello pointed out that despite strong earnings reports from large tech companies, stock price reactions have been muted, while small-cap stocks have suffered heavy losses, indicating a severe lack of market breadth and a clear shift in capital flows towards safe havens. New York Fed President Williams believes the labor market is cooling moderately but remains robust, holding an open yet cautious attitude towards a rate cut in September; the White House attributes the weak employment data to technical factors and expects a rebound in the future. However, the market generally believes that the Federal Reserve is facing a contradictory dilemma of rising inflation and a weakening labor market, with the risk of policy missteps resurfacing.
In the Asia-Pacific region, there has been continuous progress in the RWA sector. The world's first RWA registration platform, initiated by the Hong Kong Web 3.0 Standardization Association, is set to officially launch on August 7, aiming to provide a full-process service for the tokenization of physical assets. HashKey's chief analyst Jeffrey Ding commented that the launch of this platform is a key step in regulatory innovation for Hong Kong in the RWA field, as establishing standardized processes can effectively enhance market compliance and transparency. He believes that the strong confidence of the capital market in the RWA sector will further drive the research and development of related technologies and commercial applications, injecting new momentum into the digital economy development of Hong Kong and the entire Asia-Pacific region.
Bitcoin fell below $112,000 over the weekend but has since rebounded to above $114,000. 10x Research pointed out that the price drop below $112,000 is related to signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market, which may indicate a significant market change. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes that with the U.S. tariff bill approaching its third-quarter deadline, combined with weak non-farm payroll data and sluggish credit growth in the global economy, it is difficult to support economic expansion, and Bitcoin may fall to $100,000. Trader Cipher X warned that if the price cannot regain $116,000, it may drop to $104,000. Analyst CrypNuevo expects the price may briefly pull back to $110,000, believing that this level can provide effective support. Analyst BitBull also believes that Bitcoin may bottom out in the range of $110,000 to $112,000. Technical analysis by analyst Man of Bitcoin indicates that holding above $112,000 is key to starting a new round of increases, while falling below it may confirm a top formation. Although a report from Matrixport indicates that August and September are typically weak months for Bitcoin, BitBull predicts that the reversal pattern for Bitcoin is still ongoing, with a target price potentially reaching $148,000, and the market generally predicts that BTC may reach $150,000 by October 2025.
Regarding Ethereum, Arthur Hayes also predicts it may test $3,000. Trader IncomeSharks believes the current price performance appears to be a false breakout and advises investors to operate cautiously. Well-known crypto analyst 0xENAS is focusing on short-term opportunities for another push into the $3.8K-$4K range, believing that the DAT (tokenized asset trust) model, as an ETF-like tool, is undervalued and may become key to attracting large-scale capital inflows from traditional finance. Fundstrat Capital's Tomas Lee provided an extremely optimistic forecast, believing that with Wall Street's influx, Ethereum's fair price could reach $10,000 to $20,000 within the next 12 months.
Over the weekend, due to Musk retweeting related posts, Meme coins related to the Grok concept surged across the board, with the female AI companion concept Ani rising 45% in 24 hours, and the male AI companion concept Valentine soaring 103%.
2. Key Data (as of August 4, 12:00 HKT)
(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)
Bitcoin: $114,556 (YTD +22.42%), daily spot trading volume $23.495 billion
Ethereum: $3,555.34 (YTD +6.4%), daily spot trading volume $18.879 billion
Fear and Greed Index: 64 (Greed)
Average GAS: BTC: 1 sat/vB, ETH: 0.21 Gwei
Market share: BTC 61.2%, ETH 11.5%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, ETH, BTC, ENA, TOKAMAK
24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 49.52%/50.48%
Sector performance: PayFi up 6.78%; RWA up 5.46%
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 50,981 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $135 million, including $29.46 million in BTC, $41.81 million in ETH, and $9.16 million in XRP.
BTC medium to long-term trend channel: upper line ($116,909.47), lower line ($114,594.43)
ETH medium to long-term trend channel: upper line ($3,615.31), lower line ($3,543.72)
*Note: When the price is above the upper and lower lines, it indicates a medium to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or fluctuates through the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.
3. ETF Flows (as of August 1)
Bitcoin ETF: -$812 million, the second-highest in history
Ethereum ETF: -$152 million, ending a 20-day net inflow streak
4. Today's Outlook
Binance Alpha will launch Cycle Network (CYC) on August 4 and DarkStar (DARK)
Rice Robotics will launch the RICE token on the TokenFi Launchpad on August 5
IOTA (IOTA) will unlock approximately 8.63 million tokens at 8:00 AM on August 4, accounting for 0.22% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $1.6 million.
GoGoPool (GGP) will unlock approximately 750,000 tokens at 8:00 AM on August 4, accounting for 10.60% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $1.2 million.
Ethena (ENA) will unlock approximately 172 million tokens at 3:00 PM on August 5, accounting for 2.70% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $95.8 million.
Spectral (SPEC) will unlock approximately 3.62 million tokens at 8:00 AM on August 5, accounting for 17.57% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $1.8 million.
Today's top gainers in the top 100 by market cap: HEX up 14.7%, MemeCore up 13.1%, Pulsechain up 11.3%, Ethena up 11.2%, PulseX up 11.1%.
5. Hot News
This Week's Macro Outlook: New Tariff Red Line Ignites "Final Battle"
Analysis: Paradigm May Hold HYPE Valued at Approximately $765.4 Million
The Linea On-chain DEX Etherex will Launch its Native Token REX on August 6
Michael Saylor: Bitcoin is a Trading Asset in the Short Term, a Treasury Asset in the Long Term
Arthur Hayes Sold Approximately $13.35 Million of ETH, ENA, and PEPE
NASDAQ-listed DevvStream Corp. Purchased $10 Million in Bitcoin and Solana
U.S. July Seasonally Adjusted Non-farm Employment Increased by 73,000, Unemployment Rate at 4.2%
This article is supported by HashKey, HashKey Exchange is Hong Kong's largest licensed virtual asset exchange and Asia's most trusted fiat gateway for crypto assets. It aims to set a new benchmark for virtual asset exchanges in terms of compliance, fund security, and platform assurance.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
