Good evening, brothers!
After U.S. President Trump announced the adjusted "reciprocal tariffs" for multiple countries, a recent study released by Yale University on August 1 indicates that American consumers are currently facing the highest tariff rates since 1934, which will increase the average household spending in the U.S. by $2,400 by 2025.
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A sharp decline is not a bad thing
In March 2022, when the stock market plummeted, I felt it wasn't entirely a bad thing, and here are a few simple reasons:
First, experiencing a sharp decline early is better than experiencing it later. Deep down, we all have an anchoring effect. For example, whether a stock's price has dropped to a three-year or five-year low is a significant psychological threshold for us. The first time experiencing this, our emotions are naturally fluctuating. But if you have gone through a drop from 6124 points to 1664 points, or from 5178 points to 2441 points, you might be more immune to the current fluctuations. Similarly, what you are experiencing now will strengthen your immunity to future bear markets.
Second, the more irrational the market is, the more you can understand the brilliance of Buffett's investment philosophy. Buffett repeatedly says, "Never use leverage, never use leverage." When the market is calm, we don't deeply feel the weight of this statement. Many investors might think, "What does it matter if I use a little leverage? As long as I buy stocks of quality companies, how could I possibly face a margin call?" Let's look at the Hang Seng Tech Index, which has fallen over 70% from its peak; if financed at a 1:1 ratio, it would have already faced a margin call.
As long as we remain in the market, we will always encounter bear and bull markets. Let's think the other way around: if the market never declines or adjusts, wouldn't all the capital in the world flood into the stock market? This is clearly unrealistic. There are ups and downs, and when it drops, it can look a bit scary, which can deter some people. During a bear market, enduring market fluctuations is a necessary cost. The only thing we need to do is to ensure we don't get wiped out in extreme market situations. Only by surviving can we see the sunlight of tomorrow.
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When the book value of an investment is "halved" over a few years, it usually signifies a complete failure—but when the protagonist is Warren Buffett, the story may need to be interpreted from a different angle.
On August 2 (Saturday), Berkshire Hathaway, led by Warren Buffett, disclosed in a regulatory filing that the company had made a massive $3.8 billion write-down on its investment in Kraft Heinz, reducing the book value of its investment to $8.4 billion, a significant drop from over $17 billion at the end of 2017.
This event confirmed external judgments about the failure of this investment, but an analysis by the Financial Times pointed out that due to the favorable terms Buffett secured in the deal, he remains a winner even in this widely recognized "Waterloo."
BTC: On the 4-hour level, the price continues to stay above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, and the price trend remains healthy.
On the daily level, the price continues to be constrained by multiple moving averages.
In summary, support level at 114100, resistance level at 114600.
ETH: On the 4-hour level, the price continues to stay above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, and the price trend remains healthy, with a support level at 3550 and a resistance level at 3570.
LTC: The price continues to stay near the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, and the price trend remains strong. The short-term market is overbought, so be cautious of a price correction, with a support level at 108 and a resistance level at 116.
BCH: The price continues to stay above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, and the price trend remains strong. The short-term market is overbought, so be cautious of a price correction, with a support level at 540 and a resistance level at 560.
That's all for now, good night!
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