Tonight at 20:00, Trump will accept an exclusive interview with CNBC's "Squawk Box." This interview is highly anticipated, as he will share his insights on key topics such as the economy, employment, and Federal Reserve policies.
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Looking back, the controversy over the falsification of non-farm data has been quite intense. The authenticity of U.S. employment data over the past two years has been under scrutiny, with frequent revisions and even instances of data leaks. For example, on August 21, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revised the non-farm employment data, indicating that the number of new jobs in the U.S. from April 2023 to March 2024 was reduced by 818,000 compared to previous estimates. In July of this year, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that the number of new non-farm jobs was 114,000, far below market expectations. In response to such data, Trump quickly took action, dismissing the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Erica McEntyre, showing that he is still concerned about the issue of data distortion.
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Trump has always been very focused on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and has frequently applied pressure. As early as June 29, he stated in an interview that the U.S. should keep interest rates at 1% or 2%. He has repeatedly criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, believing that his policies are detrimental to the U.S. economy. Given his consistent stance and the fact that he is still in office, it is highly likely that he will again pressure the Federal Reserve during tonight's interview, mentioning the possibility of interest rate cuts.
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Recent news has mostly focused on the "new tariff proposal," with over 66 countries listed as potential targets for increased tariffs. Such actions have become commonplace in the market; each time similar news emerges, retail investors often overreact, while the market subsequently reaches new highs. In this context, Trump's statements regarding the economy and monetary policy become even more critical. If he signals easing during the interview, it could likely create a favorable environment for risk assets in the short term. Investors should pay close attention to his attitude towards monetary policy and be prepared to respond to market fluctuations. After all, whenever Trump speaks, the market often experiences significant volatility.
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In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin experienced a rapid decline after a period of consolidation today, hitting a low of 1,136,100, forming a "pin bar" pattern, and then quickly rebounding to around 1,148,000, with bullish momentum strongly released after the bottoming out. Ethereum, after testing the high point of 3,735 in the early morning, began to oscillate and decline, dropping to around 3,600 in the afternoon before rebounding to 3,692 and then slightly retreating. The market quickly moved away from the lower boundary area after the afternoon pin bar, and is now steadily approaching the middle band, showing a rhythm of "lower boundary support → moving away from the weak range → repairing towards the middle band." From the hourly Bollinger Bands structure, the current channel is in a clear widening phase, with active competition between bulls and bears.
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