Take Profit?
$ETH reached $4,200, and many friends asked me if I had reduced my position. I noticed that many friends on Twitter also took profits, congratulations to those who made money. I haven't sold any because, for me, there are three things I believe in:
- Is there a systemic risk, or is there a possibility of a large-scale correction?
Currently, it is said that Trump’s trading should not be opposed by anyone, and what Trump needs to do is to boost his approval ratings. The rise in the stock market is also part of enhancing his support, so Trump often says that since he took office, many assets have been continuously breaking new highs. If there is no systemic risk, then we should follow Trump and the policies of the United States.
Trump says he wants to develop AI, so invest in AI; he says he wants to build a strong country for cryptocurrency, so invest in BTC. Even when policies are leaning towards cryptocurrency, following the policies may not be wrong.
Currently, ETH is very similar to BTC in March 2024, both structurally and financially, especially since my bet is not on Ethereum itself, but on BlackRock and on-chain brokerages. ETH is currently the most Turing complete and decentralized among public chains.
- If I were to sell, what would I do with the funds from the sale?
I can't find better investment products. Many friends say I can wait for a pullback in $BTC or $ETH to buy back, which is true, but if I start entering the short-term trading network, what price should I buy back at? What if that price doesn't come and it continues to rise?
Under the premise of no systemic risk, unless I have better investment targets and the money I sell has clear investment products, I might consider selling. But currently, it is clear that funds are leaning towards BTC and ETH, so why should I sell?
- Are there any positive expectations in the short, medium, and long term?
The most likely short-term positive is the staking of the ETH spot ETF. The policies have already cleared all obstacles; it’s just a matter of time. Although the advantages of staking are not very significant at the moment, this is the first compliant cryptocurrency with annualized returns, essentially similar to Bitcoin mining, both are about earning APY. Especially for institutions and high-net-worth investors, the safety of earning on assets is even more important.
In the medium term, I expect a flourishing of RWA. Although there are already many RWA and RWAFi applications, there hasn’t been anything that can change the cryptocurrency landscape yet. I believe that as the market evolves, more compliant and attractive opportunities will gradually emerge.
In the long term, it’s on-chain brokerages. I believe these four words could represent half of Nasdaq's market value.
So, I am still holding on, of course, these are just my personal judgments, and my judgments may not be correct, but as long as I believe in them, that’s enough. Moreover, I wasn't worried when ETH was over $800, and now I am even less worried.
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