The cryptocurrency market has traditionally followed a four-year bull-bear cycle, which seems to be related to Bitcoin halving, but according to industry analysts and experts, this pattern may be breaking down.
“Top 100 Bitcoin treasury companies hold nearly 1 million Bitcoins,” writer and investor Jason Williams stated in a post on X on Sunday.
Matthew Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise Asset Management, also expressed a similar view in an article published by CNBC on Friday.
Hougan pointed out, “It can’t be considered officially over until we see positive returns in 2026. But I believe we will, so I’ll say this – I think the four-year cycle is over.” He reiterated this view in July.
In the past three market cycles, Bitcoin price peaks occurred in the year following the halving, specifically in 2013, 2017, and 2021, with the next peak expected in 2025.
Pierre Rochard, CEO of The Bitcoin Bond Company, also stated on X on Monday, “The four-year cycle seems more likely to have ended.”
He added that with 95% of Bitcoins already mined, the impact of halving on the circulating supply is limited. The current supply mainly comes from OG holders, while demand primarily comes from retail spot buyers, continuous inflows into wealth platforms via ETPs, and treasury companies.
Martin Burgherr, Chief Client Officer of Sygnum Bank, told Cointelegraph, “The four-year halving cycle is still a useful reference, but it is no longer the only factor driving market behavior.”
He added that as the market matures, factors such as the macroeconomic environment, institutional capital flows, regulatory progress, and ETF adoption also have significant impacts on the market.
Cryptocurrency analyst ‘CRYPTO₿IRB’ holds a different view. He told his 715,000 followers on X on Sunday that he believes the disappearance of the four-year cycle is “incorrect.”
He stated that the emergence of ETFs actually reinforces the four-year crypto cycle, as traditional finance operates on a four-year presidential cycle, and ETFs enhance the correlation between cryptocurrencies and traditional finance.
“Not to mention the mathematically programmed four-year halving cycle, this mechanism cannot be changed,” he added, clearly referring to Bitcoin's halving events.
Seamus Rocca, CEO of Xapo Bank, told Cointelegraph in July that the risk of a long-term bear market still exists, and the four-year cycle continues.
“Many people believe that institutional entry means the cyclicality of Bitcoin has ended, but I do not agree,” he said.
Related: As Ethereum (ETH) breaks through $4,200, Vitalik Buterin regains the title of "On-Chain Billionaire"
Original article: “Is the Four-Year Cryptocurrency Cycle Over? Supporters' Voices Are Growing Louder”
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
