A new report jointly released by Bitcoin researcher Tuur Demeester and Adamant Research indicates that the current market phase may represent a "robust strong" period for Bitcoin, potentially in the mid-stage of what could become "one of the most significant bull markets in Bitcoin's history."

The report, led by Bitcoin economist and early investor Tuur Demeester, titled "How to Position for the Bitcoin Bull Market," predicts that from current levels, Bitcoin still has a price increase potential of 4-10 times, meaning the target price could exceed $500,000 in the coming years:

"We believe we are currently in a mid-stage that could become one of the most significant bull markets in Bitcoin's history. From the current range, we believe there is still 4-10 times the appreciation potential, which means the target price for Bitcoin will exceed $500,000."

Multiple indicators support this view, with on-chain trends showing strong conviction among seasoned holders. For example, the report notes that large investors (whales) are choosing to hold rather than sell. The net holding changes of holders show no signs of large-scale capitulation selling since 2025, a behavior typically associated with market peaks.

"In the past two years, when Bitcoin retested previous historical highs during the turmoil of the U.S. elections, whales had shifted some tokens. However, throughout 2025, the daily net transfer volume of holders never exceeded 100,000 coins, while historically, this scale usually indicates a sell-off behavior typical of the late-stage frenzy."

Another indicator is the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL), which shows that 50%-70% of Bitcoin supply is in an unrealized profit state. This aligns more with a healthy mid-term optimism rather than late-stage frenzy.

The report lists potential catalysts that could trigger a pullback but believes the risks of these factors ending the bull market are limited. For instance, a major hacking incident could undermine market confidence, but past cases show minimal impact on Bitcoin prices:

"We believe that only in extreme cases could a hacking incident curb or end the Bitcoin bull market. When 120,000 Bitcoins were stolen from Bitfinex in 2016, the price was hardly affected."

Additionally, the distribution of tokens from Mt. Gox and bankrupt platforms has been quickly absorbed by market demand, with the liquidation of 80,000 Bitcoins on July 8, 2025, causing only a 4% price fluctuation.

It is reported that Coinbase holds about 10% of Bitcoin supply, which may pose centralization risks. However, ETF issuers have begun diversifying custody options, and under the current U.S. government, which is actively incorporating Bitcoin into financial policy, the probability of custodial assets being seized is low.

Although macroeconomic collapses may trigger short-term volatility, the report expects that in the long run, Bitcoin will outperform commodities and inflation.

The report completely breaks from the 2015 view of recommending a small allocation to altcoins, instead suggesting holding only Bitcoin to avoid spreading funds into projects that are "far inferior to Bitcoin," which lack Bitcoin's network effects, security models, and monetary purity.

The author compares Bitcoin's role to that of an underlying internet protocol, viewing it as a single dominant protocol, and predicts that competitors like Ethereum, Ripple, and Cardano will gradually lose relevance.

Tuur Demeester specifically points out that the demand for "long-term value storage" is the core engine for Bitcoin's current and future growth. This demand is driven by multiple factors: ongoing inflation, fiscal deficits, bonds losing their decades-long safe-haven status, declining appeal of real estate as a hedge, and capital rotating towards assets with high liquidity and low counterparty risk.

After El Salvador adopted Bitcoin as legal tender in 2021, the U.S. accelerated its adoption under the pro-Bitcoin policies of the Trump administration, including establishing a national strategic Bitcoin reserve, supportive legislation like the GENIUS Act, and the rapid proliferation of Bitcoin spot ETFs (currently holding about 1.4 million BTC).

The report notes that the U.S.'s aggressive measures are prompting other countries to explore their own Bitcoin strategies: "These strong supportive attitudes are beginning to trigger a global chain reaction."

Regarding how much Bitcoin investors should allocate, the report suggests considering factors such as risk tolerance and conviction strength. According to the report, a 5% allocation can serve as "insurance" against systemic risk; increasing to 10% is seen as a speculative hedge within a diversified portfolio; and a 20%-50% allocation indicates strong conviction from holders, viewing it as a strategy for "early retirement."

In terms of custody, the report suggests that a collaborative multi-signature setup is the best choice to balance self-control and operational security, especially suitable for newcomers.

Tuur Demeester and Adamant Research believe that the current Bitcoin bull market is far from over, with institutional adoption, favorable macroeconomic conditions, and the steadfast conviction of holders laying the groundwork for potential historic gains.

We are currently in a "mid-cycle," not a peak. If Bitcoin fulfills its promise as a store of value, it may redefine its position in the global financial system in the coming years.

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