Bitcoin (BTC) is in an exciting position as the new week begins, with price movements approaching historical highs.
Bitcoin surged to $122,000, with the latest signs indicating that price discovery is imminent.
Discussions about a downturn are focused on the CME gap from the weekend, which offers $117,000 as a pullback target.
This week, CPI and PPI will be announced, and the market is firmly betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month.
Whale USDT transactions indicate a lack of interest in taking profits.
The red Coinbase premium suggests that Bitcoin may face issues during the upcoming U.S. trading session.
Bitcoin's price movements quickly boosted bullish sentiment after the weekly close.
According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, BTC/USD rapidly surged above $122,000, with a local high of $122,312 on Bitstamp before starting to pull back.
In the process, Bitcoin liquidated over $100 million in short positions as it broke through a liquidity wall below the historical high.
Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass shows that resistance is increasing at $123,000 and above.
Market participants reacted with both relief and caution. They believe that BTC/USD may pull back to consolidate gains before attacking historical highs.
Bitcoin performed strongly, nearly setting a new high. But this was the weekend's market. Cryptocurrency trader, analyst, and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe stated on the X platform on Monday:
Meanwhile, focusing on the overall leverage trend, well-known trader BitBull issued a bullish signal that should far exceed the current price discovery battle.
The ratio of leveraged futures to spot purchases is approaching a low not seen since the last Bitcoin bear market at the end of 2022.
"This is a rare signal," he summarized.
"This means that this rebound is not supported by leveraged longs that can be wiped out overnight. It is driven by spot demand, which tends to hold during volatility."
When it comes to the BTC price drop, market participants have only one thing on their minds.
The weekend's rise created a new "gap" in CME Group's Bitcoin futures, and observers are eagerly watching for signs that it will be "filled."
I hate to be that guy… But we have a large CME gap that opened up over the weekend - between $117 & $119k. Ideally, we close this soon. pic.twitter.com/fUr7K3huus
CME gaps are a classic feature in Bitcoin trading, and recently, prices have returned up or down to fill them—usually within days or even hours.
"This week could see a quick fill—something noteworthy," said well-known trader Jelle, echoing the sentiment of the entire trading community.
Fully filling the latest gap would bring BTC/USD back to just above $117,200, a level that has already been a key resistance/support conversion zone.
On Sunday, well-known trader and analyst Rekt Capital described the upcoming weekly close as "decisive," as it would determine the fate of $117,200.
Last week, Rekt Capital emphasized that reclaiming this level is crucial for BTC's overall price in the "downward deviation cycle."
This week, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data for July will be released, and the market is eagerly anticipating policy signals.
Under ongoing pressure, the Federal Reserve's interest rates remain one of the agenda items for risk asset traders, especially with pressure from President Donald Trump.
Trading information platform The Kobeissi Letter stated via the X platform: "This week's inflation data is extremely critical, and the market is looking ahead to the Fed meeting in September."
Current data from CME Group's FedWatch tool shows that the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next month, with a probability close to 90%, compared to 57% a month ago.
The CPI itself is expected to be slightly higher than last month—which would add more weight to an unexpected cooling, BitBull stated.
"If the CPI comes in below expectations, a rate cut in September will be confirmed. This will help risk assets rebound further," he explained in a post on X, calling the data release the "biggest crypto event" of the week.
Several senior Federal Reserve officials will take the stage alongside the data, potentially revealing further sentiment.
For on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant, when it comes to Bitcoin price reversal signals, one altcoin blockchain is worth noting.
In a "Quicktake" blog post released on Monday, analyst Amr Taha noted that large USDT transfers on the TRON network often coincide with BTC/USD pullbacks.
He summarized: "When daily transaction totals exceed $50 million with over $10 million per transaction, it usually indicates large-scale profit-taking in Bitcoin."
A chart showed the daily balance changes of TRC-20 USDT wallets, particularly focusing on transactions valued at $10 million or more, which are considered to belong to whales.
Taha provided two examples of this process in action. On July 16 and July 23, surges in whale USDT transactions led to Bitcoin price pullbacks of 4.5% and 3.8%, respectively.
However, whales have not yet shown a willingness to reduce risk.
"Large USDT flows can serve as an early warning for BTC pullbacks," Taha concluded.
The market has begun to openly worry about the sustainability of BTC price breakthroughs.
For another contributor to CryptoQuant, J. A. Maartunn, a potential issue is centered on the largest U.S. exchange, Coinbase.
The Coinbase premium index measures the price ratio between the Coinbase BTC/USD trading pair and the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Currently, this index has fallen back into negative territory.
"Is Coinbase marking up the sell-off?" he inquired on X.
The "red" premium indicates a lack of sustained interest from Coinbase users, putting greater pressure on the start of the U.S. traditional financial trading session to support higher prices.
Well-known trader Roman remains cautious during the market rise while emphasizing that the lack of trading volume has a bearish impact on the emerging boom of the largest altcoin, Ethereum (ETH).
As Cointelegraph reported, ETH/USD reached its highest level since the end of 2021 over the weekend.
Roman told his fans in a recent post on the X platform: "It's great to break through key resistance levels, but I notice two issues: bearish divergence and insufficient volume."
Related: As Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) warm up, crypto ETP inflows reach $572 million
Original article: “Will Bitcoin Price Fill the CME $117K Gap? Five Key Points for BTC This Week”
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