Latest Analysis of the Crypto Market: Macroeconomic and Technical Signals Resonating, BTC and ETH Hitting New Highs
Macroeconomic Analysis
Inflation and Monetary Policy Expectations
The U.S. CPI annual rate, seasonally adjusted, recorded 2.7% at the end of July, slightly lower than the estimated 2.8%. This marks the first significant control of inflation since Trump's tariff policy. The latest interest rate futures indicate that the probability of a Fed rate cut in September has risen to 93.4%, with expectations for easing significantly heating up.Debt Risks and Long-term Impacts
The U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion for the first time, with the debt-to-GDP ratio approaching or even exceeding historical warning lines (around 120%+). In the context of persistently high fiscal spending and insufficient tax revenue growth, there may be a forced continuation of debt expansion in the future. Current interest rates remain high, and interest payments are nearing military spending levels, which may compel future monetary policy to lean towards easing. The greater the debt pressure, the higher the likelihood of "monetizing" debt repayment. Bitcoin and Ethereum are viewed as anti-inflation assets, likely to attract more allocation funds in the medium to long term. In the short term, expectations of an early rate cut may trigger changes in risk appetite.
Technical Analysis
BTC
As previously mentioned, although the market experienced a high and then a pullback with a long upper shadow on the previous day, the volume structure indicates a surge in volume followed by a decrease in volume during the pullback, suggesting that there has not been significant selling pressure at high levels, confirming a pullback after a breakout. The current daily trend maintains an upward oscillation along the moving averages, with a moderate increase in volume resulting in a solid bullish candle yesterday, indicating active support from bulls. The MACD fast and slow lines are above the zero axis and are diverging with a golden cross, and the histogram continues to expand, indicating ample upward space for technical indicators. The target for this upward movement remains around 135K.
On the 4-hour chart, structural support was found at the 118.5K level yesterday, which can serve as a short-term defense reference. Today, watch for bullish opportunities at the support level between 119K and 118K, with resistance levels at 120.5K and 121.5K above.
ETH
As mentioned in Monday's analysis, ETH is expected to challenge the $4800 mark, currently just over a hundred points away from the target. After a slight pullback in the previous two days, the daily chart has completed a technical repair, maintaining a robust upward trend and is now approaching historical highs. Combined with yesterday's increase in volume, there may be signs of high-level consolidation in the short term. However, historical experience shows that a significant drop is usually preceded by a high-level distribution phase, so there is no need for excessive concern. On the 4-hour level, a solid bullish candle was formed last night during the U.S. trading session, continuing the upward trend but with a narrowing increase. The recent low points have risen from 4380 to 4480 and then to 4580. Today, support is seen in the 4580-4480 range, with resistance levels at 4780-4840 above.
Altcoin Observation
In yesterday's live broadcast, it was emphasized that the current market shows a significant siphoning effect, with mainstream coins like BTC and ETH absorbing the vast majority of funds.
The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is approximately $4 trillion, with BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB, and SOL collectively accounting for over 82%, while there are more than 40,000 tradable assets in the entire market. In the absence of new off-market funds, if mainstream coins do not enter a high-level consolidation, altcoins will struggle to gain sufficient upward momentum. This situation is similar to September-October of last year—mainstream coins continued to rise while altcoins repeatedly hit new lows. To wait for the altcoin market to start, one of two conditions must be met: either the Fed's rate cut brings in funds, or some of the profits from mainstream coins flow into the altcoin sector.
In terms of sector opportunities, focus on directions that currently have both heat and narrative: the Ethereum ecosystem (L2 expansion, staking derivatives) is expected to catch up; the AI sector continues to gain traction; DePIN is favored due to practical applications; the Bitcoin ecosystem is expanding due to the craze for inscriptions and tokenization; the MEME sector is highly volatile with quick emotional releases, suitable for short-term participation. Specific individual coin recommendations are not publicly provided.
Risk Warning
The crypto market is highly volatile; the above is merely personal market observation and analysis and does not constitute investment advice. Caution is advised when entering the market.
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