In the fat tail phase, the overall sentiment towards altcoins in the market has reached a new high since 2023, which is a rare occurrence in history. The discussion around altcoins has become the most concentrated reflection in the past half month.

At the same time, two uncertainty factors from August have basically been ruled out.

The first is the US-China tariffs. The joint statement from the US-China Stockholm Economic and Trade Talks: the US and China will again suspend the implementation of a 24% tariff for 90 days starting from August 12, 2025.

The second is the CPI data. Employment and inflation are currently the key factors affecting the US interest rate cuts. Both indicators are currently pointing towards favorable outcomes. Moreover, from Trump's perspective, lowering interest rates is beneficial for the return and reinvestment of US manufacturing, which may lead to a larger-than-expected rate cut, possibly 50 basis points instead of the market's expected 25 basis points.

With these two factors ruled out, August will likely see a relatively sweet honeymoon period.

At this moment, we also see that #BMNR is preparing to make a big move, with $20 billion in financing to buy more ETH. If successful, this will open a new chapter in the US stock market (previously it was Strategy), a company that does not require a main business or product development and sales, but instead accumulates a single asset over 30 trading days, leading to rapid increases and expansions.

Although there are many criticisms in the market currently, including excessive leverage and the creation of a bubble and hollowing out of the US capital market, from the current results-oriented perspective, #BMNR is undoubtedly successful. It has also successfully rescued ETH and the future altcoin market. The familiar chain reaction seems to have arrived: #BTC rises — #BTC consolidates — #ETH rises — blue-chip altcoins rise — small-cap altcoins rise — the market approaches its end.

Recently, many friends have consulted me about my strategy. I generally tell them that we are approaching the blue-chip altcoin rebound phase. However, since we are in the fat tail phase, I am hesitant to touch small-cap altcoins. The main strategy is to focus on projects with strong liquidity and strong logic, such as #SOL, #SUI, #SEI, #XRP, and previously mentioned ecological projects of #ETH, such as the leading staking project #LDO, the leading DEX #UNI, the leading domain project #ENS, and the leading staking project #Eigen, etc. Overall, I will not engage in leverage trading and will control my positions.

Recently, some friends have criticized us for being too conservative. During the FOMO period, we tend to be cautious, while in the trough period, we lean towards being aggressive. This is the secret to long-term success in the market.

When we confirm that the global stock market's Kitchin expansion is entering its final phase, with the US stock market having risen for 34 months (since October 2022), I have a big question mark about how much longer this Kitchin cycle expansion can last under the backdrop of high valuations and high stock prices! Lowering expectations may be the best strategy.

After rising for 34 months, when you see the market rising every day, you want to be aggressive. You criticize me for being conservative, but I am conservative; I will not be aggressive. The opportunities to make money in the market are always there. Why should I be aggressive when prices are sky-high?

Of course, the overall trend is good right now, and there are no signs of it ending. If you want to go long, I support it; taking some positions to test the waters is also fine. However, if you want me to go all in, I am always looking for an exit; I am afraid of heights, you know? Because I have suffered too much from greed in the previous two cycles!

In the fat tail phase, there is still a probability of further highs and wide fluctuations at high levels, but who can guarantee that they can sell at the highest point? Therefore, being content and holding spot positions without leverage is the most prudent strategy! 🧐

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