On August 15, the cryptocurrency market experienced a widespread decline influenced by U.S. macroeconomic data. Bitcoin and Ethereum are both facing correction pressure. What will the subsequent trend look like?
The fluctuations in the crypto market are like the waves in a turbulent sea, making one feel anxious. However, its charm lies in the fact that it never considers your past performance. Stop saying "I'll enter the market when it stabilizes"; opportunities in the crypto world never lie in "stability." The real dividends always belong to those who dare to position themselves amid uncertainty. Market volatility is not a risk; not understanding the trend is the biggest risk.
In July, the U.S. PPI rose by 0.9% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, exceeding expectations. This inflation data weakened the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations for September (the probability dropped to 83%), triggering a sell-off in the crypto market. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies fell by 3.9% in 24 hours, with BTC dropping below $118,000 and ETH falling below $4,500.
After the PPI data was released, BTC retreated from a high of $124,500 and is currently fluctuating in the range of $117,900–$119,000. The daily moving averages show a "bearish arrangement," and the shrinking trading volume indicates weakened momentum. $116,300 is the dividing line for bulls and bears; if it falls below, it may test $115,000. The supply concentration zone is between $124,600–$126,800, and a breakout requires increased volume.
From a technical perspective, after a series of daily highs, BTC has retreated. The MACD death cross and the KDJ's low position indicate that bearish momentum is dominant. The weekly ascending channel remains intact; if it stabilizes above $115,000, the mid-term target still points to $125,000–$130,000.
Long position operation range suggestion: Gradually build positions in the $116,000–$118,000 range, with a stop loss set below $115,000 and a target of $120,000.
Short position operation range suggestion: Short in the $120,000–$122,000 range, with a stop loss set at $124,000. The target is $118,000–$119,000.
After reaching a high of $4,795 yesterday, Ethereum faced a sharp drop to around $4,450, but today it has warmed up, currently priced around $4,630.
From a technical perspective, the KDJ on the four-hour chart has entered the oversold zone and is starting to turn upward, while the MACD green bars are beginning to expand. A short-term correction is expected, with resistance around $4,750 and support near $4,450.
Long position operation range suggestion: Enter long positions around $4,580–$4,630, targeting the $4,710–$4,750 range, with a defensive position at $4,520–$4,550.
Short position operation range suggestion: If the price fails to break through effectively in the $4,700–$4,750 range, consider a light short position, targeting the $4,600–$4,650 range, with a defensive position at $4,795.
In the short term, BTC and ETH face technical correction pressure, but the long-term bullish logic remains unchanged. Investors are advised to operate with light positions based on support/resistance levels, prioritizing trading opportunities driven by high-certainty upgrade events, while also paying attention to on-chain data and macro policy changes.
Due to the timeliness of price points, there may be delays in post reviews. Specific operations should be based on real-time market conditions. The above operational range analysis is for reference only; the cryptocurrency market is highly risky, so please make cautious decisions when investing. If you are interested in specific indicator analysis or the impact of new market dynamics on prices, feel free to scan the QR code for the public account in the article below. You are welcome to visit.
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